Market data depth analysis: Reversal or relay?

• 15-minute/1-hour chart (Oversold rebound): The KDJ indicator is recovering upwards from the oversold zone, with the J value reaching 96.35, which is a short-term high. This indicates there will be some selling pressure around $2,950.
• 4-hour/Daily level (consolidation at the bottom): The lower band of the Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart has formed effective support around $2,911. On the daily level, the price is currently running close to the middle band of the Bollinger Bands ($2,956), which is a key "bull-bear watershed."
The following operational strategy recommendations
Based on your current situation, I have two immature suggestions:
Betting on the "Christmas" right-side long position (preferred)
• Entry Point: Wait for the price to stabilize at $2,970. (Aggressive breakout)
• Logic: $2,970 is the critical line we have repeatedly mentioned. If the price can recover this level with volume, it indicates that the support at $2,900 is not just a spike, but a substantive bottom.
• Stop loss: Exit if it falls below 2970. For those who can withstand fluctuations, set the stop loss at 2930.
• Target: $3,040 - $3,070. This is the upper resistance zone at the 4-hour level.
Second pullback to enter long (conservative type)
• Entry Point: $2,925 - $2,935 range.
• Logic: The market often undergoes a "double test". If the price falls back but does not break the previous low of $2,900, it will form a solid double bottom.
• Stop Loss: $2,895 (If it falls below the previous low, it indicates further downside potential).
• Target: Above $3,000.
Risk Warning:
Risk Warning and Liquidation Position
• Resistance levels: $2,970 and $3,010. Especially around $3,010, there is a dense area of trapped positions, and the first touch is likely to retreat.
• Liquidation Risk: If the price unfortunately falls below $2,900 again, the next wave of liquidations will target $2,820. Volatility during the Christmas period may be amplified due to reduced liquidity, so remember to set your stop-loss.
In addition, short position speculation location
1. Evaluation of Ideal Short Position Entry Point
• First resistance zone (aggressive short): $2,985 - $3,005
• Technical logic: This is the point of decline on the 15-minute level where it just dropped, as well as the position of the middle band of the 1-hour Bollinger Bands.
• Signal Observation: If the price rebounds to this range and the 15-minute K-line shows a long upper shadow or a volume stagnation, you can try to enter the market with a light position.
• Second Resistance Zone (Steady Short): $3,030 - $3,045
• Technical Logic: This is a key resistance level on the 4-hour chart and also the area where multiple attempts to bounce back have previously failed.
• Advantage: At this position, the risk-reward ratio is the highest. If entry can be made here, the stop loss can be set above $3,075, with the target looking back to $2,900 or even lower.

Why is it not recommended to open a short position directly at the current price of $2,950?
• Indicator repair risk: In your 15-minute chart, the KDJ has just completed a golden cross after a bullish divergence, and although the J value is high, the momentum is still there. Opening a short position at the current price can easily be stopped out by a short-term "violent pullback".
• Bullish Resistance: $2,900 has just shown strong liquidation buy support. Before a second test of $2,900 and confirmation of a breakdown, bears need to patiently wait for signals of a rebound weakening.
Short positions can also be built in batches, the operation is as follows:
1. Build positions in batches: You can start with a 1/3 position at $2,995, and if the price further reaches $3,030, you can fill the remaining position.
2. Keep an eye on the trading volume: If the trading volume continues to shrink during the rebound (price-volume divergence), that is the best shorting signal.
3. Christmas Window Period: As we enter December 24th, institutional liquidity will significantly decrease, and the market is prone to the "double explosion" shakeout. Please ensure to set your stop loss below your $3,060 cost line (for example, $3,055).
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