Market signals are flashing tight: traders pricing in an 88% probability that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady through January 2026. What does this mean? It's a strong bet that monetary tightening isn't going anywhere soon. Kalshi traders—who put real money where their predictions are—are essentially saying don't expect relief from the current policy stance anytime soon. The consensus seems locked in around persistent restrictive conditions, which will inevitably shape how capital flows into risk assets over the coming months.