Everyone, recently the price of Ethereum has been repeatedly pumped around the $3000 line, and many people must feel like they are stepping on a spring. Since the previous high and subsequent fall, the market has been anxious, but interestingly, this wave of fall has not broken through the key support at 2850-3000. Right now, it's stuck around $2980, with both bulls and bears fighting for control here.

Based on the feeling of watching the market over the years, this kind of stalemate often suggests that the bearish selling pressure is about to lose its effectiveness, but the rebound has not truly started yet.

**Technical indicators reveal unease**

The current moving average system is exerting pressure on the price, with the 20-day moving average at $3040, the 50-day moving average at $3220, and the 100-day moving average at $3430, indicating that the overall bearish pattern is still dominant. However, details are worth noting: the 1-hour RSI has already broken through 60, indicating that short-term momentum is quite sufficient; while the 4-hour and daily RSI are still hovering around 50, suggesting that the mid-term rebound momentum has not fully recovered yet. The divergence in indicators across different time frames usually signals that a key turning point is approaching.

It is crucial whether the area between 2850 and 3000 can be defended. Previously, every time the price fell to this level, there would be significant capital buying in. Now, this defensive line still stands firm, and the resilience of the bulls should not be underestimated.

**On-chain data reveals the patience of bulls**

The ETH held by exchanges is continuously decreasing. Although the dollar value has shrunk due to the fall, what does the continuous withdrawal of the currency itself mean? Many people are actively "locking in" and are determined not to sell at a loss at low levels. From a mid-term perspective, this is a favorable signal.

In contrast, the contract market is not so simple. The total open positions across the network are rapidly increasing, yet the price is not rising correspondingly, indicating a strong presence of new funds entering the market. However, it is important to be cautious, as the financing rates remain positive, which suggests that the enthusiasm of the bulls may be overestimated.