At three in the morning, when that $87 billion in funds flowed into the market through the decentralized stablecoin channel, a seasoned player in the circle sent me a message: "The rules of the entire game have completely changed."

He is not talking about candlesticks, nor about price fluctuations. Instead, he is referring to something we have believed in for a full decade—the repeatedly validated "four-year cycle" phenomenon, which is slowly failing in a way that no one expected.

What drives all these changes is surprisingly a tool that most people still haven't fully understood: the Decentralization stablecoin ecosystem.

**Ten years of faith, rewriting now**

"Do you know what the scariest part is?"

The leader of a prominent fund, Jason, sounded very serious on the phone.

"It's not that Bitcoin's price increase was below expectations. Rather, stablecoins are redefining the direction of funds in a completely new way."

He gave me a set of data—after the halving in 2024, over $30 billion of institutional funds did not directly buy Bitcoin. Instead, this money flowed into the ecosystem of decentralized stablecoins. This is different from before. In the past, such funds either chased the highs or sold off during the lows. Now? They silently flow between various stablecoin protocols, quietly accumulating on the chain.

"In the past, we looked at the four-year cycle, focusing on the halving time, whether miners would dump, and how crazy retail investors were." Jason paused for a moment, "Now it's completely different. You have to keep an eye on the on-chain reserves of stablecoins. You need to see how they traverse different chains. You have to watch the real movements of funds within the ecosystem."

**The Undercurrents Behind the Data**

Sounds a bit虚? Let's speak with facts.

Starting from 2024, the trading volume of stablecoins has exceeded $1 trillion annually. This is not a small number. More critically, the flow patterns of these funds are completely different from those in previous cycles.

Previously, institutional funds entered the market with clear buy and sell signals. They bought when prices rose and sold when negative news emerged. But now? Many large funds have chosen a more discreet approach: first entering the stablecoin ecosystem, accumulating positions within this ecosystem, and waiting for the right moment.

What does this mean? It means that it is very difficult to predict the market using traditional cyclical models. Because the funds no longer simply flow in and out, but rather move complexly within an ecosystem.

**Why now?**

The reason for this change is closely related to the improvement of the regulatory environment and the maturity of technology. Decentralized stablecoins have matured enough to accommodate large amounts of capital. On-chain infrastructure is also capable of supporting high-frequency interactions. Coupled with the demand for global cross-border payments, the role of stablecoins has evolved from "crypto dollar" to "international funding channel."

I spoke with the risk control head of a leading exchange, and he mentioned that the current logic for institutions is to first establish a foothold in the stablecoin ecosystem, understand the liquidity distribution on-chain, and then allocate various coins based on specific opportunities. It's like using stablecoins as a "beachhead," rather than going all in on a particular asset as before.

**Outline of the New Cycle**

Does the four-year cycle still exist? Yes, it does. However, its driving forces and manifestations have been quietly changing.

If you are still using the old methods - looking at halving dates, looking at miner costs, looking at retail sentiment - you may keep stepping into pitfalls. In the new game rules, the reserves of stablecoins, cross-chain liquidity, and the locked assets in the DeFi ecosystem are the signals you should pay attention to.

The market hasn't worsened; it has just become more complex. And those participants who adapt to this complexity first will reap the greatest rewards.