Look at a detail that is easily overlooked: the realized price has basically not changed in the past month, which is the first time in more than two years. The problem is quite obvious - the growth rate of new buy orders has clearly slowed down. It is not a problem of trading volume, but rather a stronger sell pressure.

Especially for those early participants who hoarded coins, recent actions have been frequent. Data shows that so far in 2025, nearly 300 billion US dollars worth of Bitcoin that had been "dormant" for over a year have been activated and transferred for sale. This scale is rare in history. However, the background of this round is somewhat different - it is no longer retail investors chasing small coins, but rather the US spot ETF and institutional investors have established sufficient market depth, allowing those early large holders the opportunity to exit gracefully near six-figure prices. Conversely, the distribution of chips has become more even, which may not be a negative signal for subsequent developments.

There are also changes at the institutional level. The previously hyped "ETF Incremental Engine" has seen nearly $3 billion in net outflows over the past four weeks. The speed of capital increase has stagnated, and the enthusiasm is clearly waning. Just look at MicroStrategy's market capitalization performance—you can see that its stock price is almost equivalent to the book value of its held Bitcoin, indicating that the market is clearly reassessing the premium of "leverage faith." The story on the derivatives side is similar: the average position size is shrinking, large funds are beginning to wait and see, while retail investors have become the main participants in the market.

But does this mean the market has ended? My view is different. There are several details worth paying attention to. Bitcoin's volatility is aligning with that of leading tech stocks in the U.S., which suggests that it is gradually evolving from a speculative tool into a mainstream asset. Additionally, the selling pace of long-term holders has become much more moderate, no longer a strategy of dumping on spikes, but rather a slow and steady release of pressure—this gentle selling pressure is, in fact, easier for the market to digest.

I personally think this is an accumulation period. The key defense level is in the range of 92000 to 95000.