Bitcoin fell from 126,000 to 85,000, and the comments section exploded. To be honest, I've seen this trick many times—experienced it in 2018 and again in 2022, didn't it always bounce back after each big dump? Now that the market sentiment index has dropped into the "panic zone," I'm actually getting more and more excited.

**Why is it falling so much?**

The most critical signal is: veteran players who have held coins for many years are starting to accelerate their liquidation. Their cost basis is too low, and they can still make a huge profit when they sell now. Meanwhile, the former main buyers—such as the orders from ETFs—have obviously reduced their appetite. With an increase in sellers and a slowdown in buyers, the balance naturally tips downward.

In October, the sudden policy shift caused nearly 20 billion in leverage to evaporate instantly, leaving the market stunned. Even now, many contract traders have yet to react, and liquidity has already begun to tighten.

**But my judgment is different**

Many people see this as a systemic issue, but I think this is purely a regular pullback within the cycle. Looking at the on-chain data, the actual situation is not as bad as imagined—active addresses have not significantly shrunk, the locked amount in mainstream ecosystems is still steadily increasing, and stablecoins are also experiencing a net inflow. This indicates that the vitality of the ecosystem itself is still present, and the price fluctuations are mainly driven by emotions and the waves caused by the macro cycle.

There is indeed external pressure: the Federal Reserve is still making adjustments, the international situation is somewhat tense, and by the end of the year, the liquidity is also relatively tight. However, these factors are not permanent and will eventually turn around.

**The real window may be next spring**

Many analysts say it will take a long time to recover, but my view is different. The key turning point may be around March next year. The reason is that the Federal Reserve's tightening cycle is nearing its end, and historical experience tells us that when liquidity is truly released, the market often reacts quickly.