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The financial strength of Japanese households is reshaping global capital flows.

The group of Japanese housewives managing 14 trillion dollars in household assets has been playing a game called "Yen Arbitrage" for the past 20 years—borrowing yen at close to zero interest rates and then investing in the US stock and bond markets. This seemingly ordinary operation, however, has leveraged trillions of dollars in capital behind the scenes.

The turning point has arrived. The Federal Reserve has begun a rate cut cycle, while the Bank of Japan has signaled interest rate hikes, instantly unraveling the core logic of arbitrage. Borrowing costs are no longer cheap, profit margins have disappeared, and Japanese retail investors face a single option — to liquidate their positions.

Next comes the chain reaction: selling off U.S. Treasury bonds, reducing holdings in tech giants' stocks, and exchanging dollars to repay yen loans. Trillions of dollars begin to flow out of the U.S. market, and the impact of such a reversal in capital flow on global liquidity is evident.

The historical reference is significant. In 2022, the Japanese government directly intervened in the foreign exchange market and massively sold U.S. Treasury bonds. Now, the collective actions of the private sector may lead to even more complex outcomes—the leveraged positions built on high liquidity are at risk of liquidation, and the chain liquidation effect may spread throughout the entire market, from the stock market to the bond market to crypto assets.

When family savings become a decisive force in the market, those who build positions on fragile foundations are just waiting to be washed out. This capital restructuring has only just begun.