Can Bitcoin break through the $90,000 mark after Christmas? The Chinese community has mixed opinions on this issue. Some are worried that resistance at this level is too strong and that the market may enter a bear market correction. But to truly understand these disagreements, we need to clarify two factors: liquidity and the derivatives market.

Around Christmas, institutional investors tend to reduce their participation, leading to a significant drop in market liquidity. This is a common phenomenon in traditional financial markets. When trading depth thins out, even small trading volumes can trigger large fluctuations. That’s why markets often experience sharp declines during holiday periods—the essence is that liquidity drying up amplifies selling pressure.

Even more dangerous is the perpetual contract market. When Bitcoin repeatedly hits resistance at key levels like $90,000 or $100,000, large leveraged long positions become extremely vulnerable. A small retracement can trigger chain liquidations, creating so-called "long squeezes." This self-reinforcing mechanism can instantly magnify volatility, even if spot market selling pressure isn’t severe.

Ultimately, short-term prices are the result of a tug-of-war among liquidity, sentiment, leverage, and macro environment. Clear trends often only emerge once these technical and emotional disturbances subside.

In this seasonal environment of low liquidity and high leverage, black swan events with intense volatility are most likely to occur. Instead of stubbornly holding onto a one-sided position, it’s better to diversify risk in advance. Consider hedging between spot and derivatives, or allocating some traditional assets to smooth overall volatility—such as precious metals, foreign exchange, or other alternative assets. When Bitcoin is volatile, these assets often serve as effective hedges, helping to keep account fluctuations much more stable.