2025-12-24 19:22:26

Having been in this circle for several years, the thing I fear most is when the market consensus is too high. Whenever everyone is shouting in unison in one direction, I become alert—because the market is most skilled at slapping down such consensus.

Recently, after observing the scene, the bearish voices predicting Bitcoin will break 90,000 by the end of the year are becoming more unified. Honestly, this extreme consensus of pessimism is actually exciting. Remember March 2020? Bitcoin was halved in one day, and many people were shouting "Crypto is over." And what happened next? That was precisely the starting point of the next bull run.

**Emotional lows are often signals of market turning points**

In early December, a flash crash wiped out over $4,000, plunging the market into a state of "extreme fear." The sentiment indicator I track once dropped to around 20. Looking at historical data reveals a pattern—every time it falls below 25, there’s a noticeable rebound in the following one or two quarters. What does this mean? When newcomers panic and run, the smart money has already sensed the opportunity. The market always belongs to the few who make money at the expense of the many.

**On-chain data is the real truth**

Just looking at sentiment isn’t enough; I trust on-chain hard data more. Recently, in the past 24 hours, most of the liquidations involved shorts, indicating that bearish positions are being gradually cleaned out. Even more interesting, whale addresses holding over 10,000 BTC have quietly increased their holdings over the past week.

And there’s a detail—some long-standing addresses are offloading, seeming to put pressure on the market. But every time this happens, funds are quietly absorbing at the bottom. This scene is all too familiar. Every bottom looks like this: retail investors panic and exit, while big players calmly accumulate.

BTC0,64%

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rug_connoisseur

· 2025-12-27 18:20

Here comes the same pattern again? Every time they talk about consensus reversal, and then they turn around and get trapped. Can this wave of short sellers really turn the tide? 🤔 Wait, are the whales really accumulating? Or are they just telling us stories again? Talking about that wave in 2020... cough, I missed the entry point already, now I can only listen to others tell legends. Emotional indicators above 20 must mean a rebound? Will history repeat itself? It's a bit uncertain. On-chain data doesn't lie, but on-chain wallets could also be fake, brother. Retail investors have been cleaned out so many times, are there really that many retail investors left? How are those who bought the bottom doing now? Are they waiting for the next wave?

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TopBuyerBottomSeller

· 2025-12-26 19:44

The logic is straightforward, but the fact that all the bears are uniformly aligned actually makes it easier to make money. History repeats itself this way. Really, when everyone is unanimously bearish, that's actually the time to get in; retail investors run away while big players start to move. I've also noticed that the emotional indicator has dropped to 20, and I feel this time might really be different. The detail of whales secretly adding positions is excellent, indicating that smart money has already started to position itself. It's always like this—fear at the peak is an opportunity. Let's see who can withstand the psychological pressure. This set of consensus-busting moves—I've seen through the 2020 wave, and now it's happening again. On-chain data doesn't lie; it's a good thing when short positions are liquidated and wiped out. Breaking 90,000? I think this reverse problem isn't that simple, but at least the direction should change. Retail investors' panic is the big players' dinner; this pattern can’t be escaped every time. Extremely uniform pessimism is a signal—maybe a reversal is imminent.

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FlatlineTrader

· 2025-12-25 08:40

The most dangerous time is when everyone is shorting. History teaches us this, so just wait and watch the show.

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zkProofInThePudding

· 2025-12-24 19:51

It's the same old rhetoric. Every time there's a crash, someone says it's a buying opportunity. And what happened? They might be right, but this time is really different. Wait... whales quietly adding to their positions? Where does this data come from? I haven't seen it. The consensus reverse operation trick is too cliché, but clichés are often the most effective. I just can't understand why. Are the smart money really the ones buying the dip at the bottom, or are the retail investors cashing out and then re-entering? Anyway, I wouldn't go all-in. This bearish wipeout... I got liquidated the last time I heard this kind of talk. Just hearing it now makes me uncomfortable.

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quietly_staking

· 2025-12-24 19:49

Hmm... Are we about to see another play of "everyone is bearish, so you should do the opposite"? Why do I feel like this logic can be applied every round, yet the ones making money are never the ones using this method? On-chain data is indeed attractive, but the whale accumulation... maybe it's just bottom-fishing after smashing it earlier? By the way, are the truly smart money still on the chain? Wait, where do the funds coming in at the bottom to pick up chips come from... this doesn't make sense. Recently, this wave of sentiment indicators is indeed low, but the pattern of bouncing back below 25... when viewed over a longer historical period, it seems a bit uncertain. Will breaking 90,000 really be the bottom, or is it just another harvest? Retail investors panic and exit, big players stay calm and position themselves. We've heard this too many times, and in the end, aren't we all just getting caught?

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MeaninglessApe

· 2025-12-24 19:47

It's the same old "extreme consensus then rebound" theory, which is getting pretty tired. However, my buddy mentioned that the more than 20 sentiment indicators do have some merit; I just don't know if they'll prove us wrong again this time.

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GasFeeCrier

· 2025-12-24 19:44

It's the same logic again. Every time, they say that when emotions hit rock bottom, a rebound is coming, so why am I still losing? Really? I just see whales increasing their positions, indicating that smart money has long since seen through it. This round of short squeeze was so thorough that it feels like the next market rally is coming. When retail investors are fleeing, the big players are eating up the chips. The story is old but always effective. History will repeat itself; it's just the prices that are different. Wait, what do on-chain data show? Can you explain in detail? I trust the sentiment indicators more, after all, beginners often buy the bottom when they cut losses. Every day, they talk about how a few people make money at the expense of the majority. Why am I still that majority? Can this rebound break 90,000? Anyway, since I don't understand, I’ll just follow the whales to buy.

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JustHereForAirdrops

· 2025-12-24 19:44

It's the same old rhetoric... Every time, they say that the emotional bottom is a buying point, but there are also quite a few who break through the bottom pants. But to be fair, whether whales are really accumulating is worth watching. Honestly, it's still a psychological game of betting, which feels a bit虚. Wait, is this wave of short squeeze really that absolute? It seems that the data shows it's no longer smart money moving. I still don't trust the idea that "a few people make money while most people lose"... Not many who have survived this long truly believe in that. Who is actually accumulating at the bottom—big players or bagholders? Who can tell the difference?

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FlashLoanLarry

· 2025-12-24 19:43

Is this the same old story? Every time, you say it's a bottom signal, but aren't you still trapped? --- Damn, is it real? Are whales eating up the chips? Why do I see on-chain data instead showing a sell-off... --- This logic only holds if you survive until the rebound day. Not everyone can endure that. --- That wave in 2020 indeed made money, but that's survivor bias—don't fool yourself. --- Wait, you said short sellers got liquidated, so who's selling now? The logic doesn't add up, buddy. --- Counter-trend operation is smart, but you've also been slapped in the face plenty of times.

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