Last week, central banks around the world kept changing their tactics, causing the market to spin in circles. In the US, the unemployment rate suddenly surged to 4.6%, hitting a recent high. The Bank of Japan finally waved goodbye to nearly 30 years of zero interest rates, and Europe still stands firmly on a hawkish stance. So what happened? The entire market seemed frozen, with bulls and bears repeatedly tugging within a very narrow range, only moving about 70 points over the week, making it look quite exhausting.

**Data Bombs One After Another**

When the US unemployment rate data was released, the market was indeed startled. The story behind the 4.6% figure is even more sobering—although job creation was still decent, last month’s data was significantly revised downward, clearly indicating the economy isn’t as resilient as it seemed. As soon as the news broke, traders immediately priced in rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and capital flooded into safe-haven assets. Historically, easing cycles tend to boost liquidity assets, which is an important signal for the crypto market.

But the turn came too quickly. On Thursday, US inflation data was much more moderate than expected, causing both the dollar and yields to fall. Just when it seemed like a good time for risk assets, the market was dragged down by the declining stock market. Then on Friday, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda made a reassuring statement—"Inflation and economic downside risks are easing"—but the problem is, the pace of global central banks is becoming increasingly chaotic, and this uncertainty tests the nerves of the market the most.

**Technical Tug-of-War**

From the chart, the key support level is around 4350-4353, which has been tested several times without holding. The resistance above first looks at the 4350-4355 range, then near 4380, which was a previous high. If support is broken, attention needs to shift to lower levels. In the short term, bulls and bears are evenly matched, and any new data or central bank comments could break this delicate balance.

Crypto investors need to be cautious: in this environment of diverging global central bank policies, the valuation logic of risk assets is changing rapidly. Whether it’s gold or cryptocurrencies, at the core, they are all testing their value anchors in the new interest rate environment.