Golden 50-year rally surpasses 120 times | Will the next 50 years continue the bullish trend?

Gold has been an important trading medium since ancient times. Due to its high density, strong ductility, and extreme durability, it not only serves as currency but also as jewelry and industrial raw materials. Over the past half-century, despite continuous fluctuations in gold prices, the overall trend has been upward, with 2025 frequently hitting new historical highs. So, can this 50-year-long bull market extend into the next 50 years? Is gold suitable for long-term holding or for swing trading? Let’s analyze each aspect.

How many times has gold increased over the past 50 years?

On August 15, 1971, U.S. President Nixon announced the detachment of the dollar from gold, ending the Bretton Woods system. Since then, gold prices have risen from $35 per ounce to around $4,300 in October, an increase of over 120 times. Especially starting in 2024, global turmoil has intensified, with central banks and investment institutions fueling the surge, breaking historical records repeatedly, with the full-year increase in 2024 exceeding 104%.

From 1971 to now, the long-term performance of gold, with a 51-fold increase, is comparable to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which has also gained significantly. From the beginning of 2025 to now, gold has jumped from $2,690 per ounce to about $4,200 in October, an increase of over 56%.

Review of four major surges in the 10-year gold trend chart

The gold trend over the past 50+ years generally shows four distinct upward cycles:

First wave (1970-1975): Confidence crisis after detachment

After the dollar was decoupled from gold, gold skyrocketed from $35 to $183, an increase of over 400%. The initial surge was driven by market loss of confidence in the dollar (no longer a convertible currency), with people preferring to hold physical gold. Later, the oil crisis forced the U.S. to increase money issuance, further pushing up gold prices. However, as the oil crisis eased and the dollar regained utility, gold prices fell back to around $100.

Second wave (1976-1980): Geopolitical crisis boost

Gold broke through $104 to $850, an increase of over 700%. The background was the second Middle East oil crisis and geopolitical turmoil (Iran hostage crisis, Soviet invasion of Afghanistan), triggering global recession and high inflation. However, sustaining high levels proved difficult; after crises eased and the Soviet Union disintegrated, gold prices quickly retreated, fluctuating between $200 and $300 over the next 20 years.

Third wave (2001-2011): A decade-long bull run

International gold prices rose from $260 to $1,921, an increase of over 700%, over 10 years. The drivers included the U.S. long-term military spending after 9/11, leading to a series of rate cuts, rate hikes, the 2008 financial crisis, and QE policies, culminating in a peak during the European debt crisis in 2011.

Fourth wave (2015-present): A new decade high

From 2015 to 2023, gold increased from $1,060 to the $2,000 level. Factors include negative interest rate policies in Japan and Europe, global de-dollarization trends, Fed QE in 2020, the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, and the Israel-Palestine conflict in 2023. 2024-2025 has seen explosive movements in the 10-year trend chart, with gold repeatedly hitting new highs, reflecting multiple bullish factors such as U.S. economic policy risks, central bank reserve accumulation, and rising geopolitical tensions.

Five major ways to invest in gold

To participate in the gold market, investors can choose from the following methods:

1. Physical Gold

Buying gold bars or jewelry directly. The advantage is ease of asset concealment and dual value, but trading can be inconvenient.

2. Gold Savings Account

Similar to gold custody certificates, which can be converted into physical gold at any time. The advantage is portability; the downside is large bid-ask spreads, no interest paid by banks, and suitability mainly for long-term holding.

3. Gold ETFs

More liquid than savings accounts, allowing purchase corresponding to specific gold ounces, but management fees are charged, and in periods of no volatility, the value may slowly decline.

4. Gold Futures

An efficient financial instrument with leverage, allowing long and short operations, low transaction costs, especially suitable for short-term swing trading.

5. Gold Contracts for Difference (CFD)

More flexible than futures, with low margin requirements, high capital efficiency, and small capital needed to participate, suitable for retail investors and small capital players for short-term swing trading.

Who yields the highest returns: gold, stocks, or bonds?

The return mechanisms of these three assets are fundamentally different:

• Gold: Gains come from price differences; no interest, requiring precise timing of entry and exit.
• Bonds: Returns come from coupon payments; need to track risk-free interest rate changes.
• Stocks: Gains come from corporate growth; suitable for long-term holding of quality companies.

In terms of investment difficulty, bonds are the simplest, gold is intermediate, and stocks are the most challenging. However, over the past 50 years, gold has performed the best, though in the last 30 years, stock returns have surpassed gold.

The key to gold investment lies in capturing trend cycles—long-term bull markets followed by sharp declines, then stabilization, and subsequent resumption of upward movement. If one can accurately identify bull phases or sharp declines, returns can far surpass bonds and stocks.

A universal investment rule is: allocate stocks during economic growth periods, and allocate gold during recessions. A more prudent approach is to balance the proportions of stocks, bonds, and gold based on individual risk tolerance and investment goals. During economic booms, stocks are favored; during downturns, gold’s value-preserving properties and bonds’ fixed income tend to attract capital inflows.

Is gold a long-term investment or for swing trading?

Although gold has surged impressively over 50 years, its price increase is not a smooth linear process. Between 1980 and 2000, gold hovered around $200-$300, and even holding for 20 years, investors saw no gains. How many 50-year periods are there in life to wait?

Therefore, gold is most suitable for swing trading rather than simple long-term holding.

On the other hand, since gold is a natural resource, extraction costs increase over time. Even after a bull market ends, prices will retrace, but the lows will gradually rise. This means that investors need not fear that a decline will make gold worthless; understanding this pattern can help avoid operational mistakes.

Conclusion

Markets are ever-changing, and unexpected events can rewrite expectations at any time. The Russia-Ukraine war, inflation, and rate hikes have all demonstrated this. Facing an uncertain future, holding a balanced portfolio of stocks, bonds, and gold can effectively hedge against volatility, making investments more stable.

Will the next 50 years see gold’s bull market reemerge? The answer depends on the evolution of the global economy, geopolitical landscape, and monetary policies. But one thing is certain: in times of rising economic uncertainty, gold’s status as a safe-haven asset will remain unchanged.