Last week's US initial jobless claims data was released, and the results are quite interesting. The number was 214,000, slightly below the market expectation of 223,500, indicating that the employment market isn't as bad as imagined. However, the continuing claims number was 1.923 million, which exceeded the estimated 1.9 million.

What does this mean? The number of new unemployment claims is decreasing, but those already unemployed are not finding jobs as quickly. One indicator is strong, the other weak; together, they suggest that the overall labor market still has resilience. Looking at historical data, the continuing claims remain at relatively low levels without obvious signs of deterioration.

For us traders, this is quite sobering. What does strong employment data imply? It suggests the Federal Reserve isn't in a rush to cut interest rates. Previously, the market was betting heavily on a "significant rate cut in 2024" story to boost the bull market, but now that expectation needs to be readjusted. Liquidity easing has been delayed, and money won't flow into risk assets as quickly.

In the short term, after such data is released, US stock index futures usually plunge, and the crypto market is likely to follow suit under pressure. But a deeper issue is that everyone needs to rethink the upcoming macro landscape. How long will the Fed keep interest rates high? This directly impacts asset pricing.

What’s your view? If employment continues to hold up strongly, can interest rate cuts really happen in March next year? Will the market digest this negative outlook in advance, or will it continue to fluctuate amid this uncertainty?