Global liquidity surges to record highs. Is a Bitcoin bull market really coming?

As of December 24, the price of Bitcoin on the Gate platform has been consolidating around $87,000. This macro environment’s “heat” contrasts sharply with the market’s “warmth,” raising a core question: will this unprecedented liquidity feast become the ultimate fuel igniting the next Bitcoin bull market?

Global liquidity levels surpass historical peaks

Recent data shows that the total global liquidity has surged to nearly $138 trillion, reaching a record high. More importantly, the growth rate — in the week ending mid-December, the expansion reached $533 billion, the largest single-week increase since Q4 2024. The main driver of this expansion is not the Federal Reserve, but the coordinated easing policies of other major global central banks.

Historically, the expansion of global liquidity has shown a significant positive correlation with risk asset prices, including Bitcoin. Essentially, this follows the “water rising tide lifts all boats” logic: as funds in the financial system become more abundant, some will inevitably flow into high-risk, high-potential-return sectors seeking appreciation. Professional digital asset management firm CoinShares built an analysis model indicating that if Bitcoin can capture 2% of the global liquidity stock and replace 5% of gold’s market value, its price could see a significant 65% increase. This provides a solid logical foundation for Bitcoin’s long-term narrative under the current macro landscape.

Market status: the gap between bull market narrative and short-term reality

Despite the favorable macro backdrop, the cryptocurrency market at year-end exhibits typical “holiday effect.” According to Gate Research Institute, overall risk appetite remains low, showing a weak consolidation pattern. The main reasons for this short-term divergence are threefold:

• Seasonal liquidity drought: Traditional holidays in Europe and America lead to large-scale trader exits, shrinking overall market trading volume, amplifying price volatility, and lacking directional momentum.
• Derivatives market suppression: An important large options expiration date is approaching, limiting market risk exposure, with most traders choosing to remain cautious before the event.
• Short-term capital pressure: The US spot Bitcoin ETF has recently experienced continuous net outflows, with last week’s net outflow approaching $500 million, indicating a slowdown in institutional buying power in the short term.

Exchange fund flow data also confirms market caution. Although Bitcoin’s price has again approached $88,500, compared to late November, new fund inflows on major exchanges have significantly declined. For example, a comparison shows that a leading exchange’s 7-day cumulative fund inflow has decreased by about 63%. Meanwhile, the number of active addresses on the Bitcoin network (30-day moving average) has fallen to a one-year low, reflecting a temporary cooling of retail participation enthusiasm.

On-chain signals and technical structure: positive signs are emerging

Beneath the calm surface of the market, some positive micro-structural changes are occurring, possibly indicating the formation of a phase bottom.

1. Marginal easing of selling pressure: According to data from well-known market maker Wintermute, net selling pressure of Bitcoin and Ethereum in OTC markets has shown signs of easing. This suggests that the prolonged large-scale institutional sell-off may be weakening, and a shift from “one-sided selling” to “balanced buying and selling” often precedes trend reversals.
2. Decline in exchange reserves: Centralized exchanges (CEX) have shown signs of net outflows of Ethereum, with about 15,200 ETH leaving in the past 24 hours, including some outflows from Gate. This usually indicates investors are transferring assets to private wallets for long-term custody rather than rushing to sell, a bullish hold signal.
3. Key technical zones: From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin is currently oscillating within a range bounded by $85,000 (strong support) and $90,000 (strong resistance). Gate Research Institute notes that despite technical resistance above, bearish momentum has shown signs of exhaustion, with multiple dips failing to break support effectively, indicating the market is accumulating energy in this zone.

Future outlook: when will the tide of liquidity surge in?

The core contradiction now is that the macro “big water” and the “channels” of the crypto market have not yet fully connected. Once seasonal factors subside, the suppressed liquidity allocation demand may accelerate seeking an outlet. Key points investors should closely monitor include:

• Post-expiration cleanup: Large options expirations often clear excessive leverage in the market, paving the way for healthier, more sustainable trend development.
• Transmission lag of macro policies: The stimulative effects of global central bank easing policies have a time lag. Once the market confirms that liquidity conditions will remain loose into 2025 and even 2026, risk asset valuation models will be reassessed.
• Industry-driven innovation attraction: The market is also paying attention to ecosystem developments on public chains like Solana, such as introducing real-world assets (RWA) like government bond yields onto the chain, which could attract a new wave of stable-yield-seeking incremental funds.

Conclusion: laying out for the future amid volatility

In summary, record-breaking global liquidity has laid a macro bull foundation for Bitcoin that is the strongest in years. Although the short-term market is constrained by holiday dullness and localized events, early signals of easing selling pressure and increased holding willingness are emerging on-chain and technically. For prudent investors, this oscillation period may be an ideal window to review core logic and strategically position when market sentiment is relatively subdued. When the holidays end and traders return, the vast tide of global liquidity will inevitably need to find its destination, and Bitcoin is likely to become the most attractive value zone.