2025-12-25 11:23:17

Last night, when the US economic data was released, the entire crypto market was shaken.

The preliminary Q3 real GDP annualized quarterly rate was announced at 4.3%, far exceeding the market’s previous expectation of 3.3%. Such a figure directly changed the market’s outlook on the Federal Reserve’s next move. The previously discussed rate cuts? Now they are basically off the table.

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s FedWatch tool immediately responded— the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in January surged to 87%. In contrast, the probability of rate cuts dropped to only 13%, almost negligible. This shift in expectations was instantly reflected in market prices. Bitcoin once dipped to a low of $86,500 in the early hours, then lacked momentum to rebound; Ethereum was also pressed firmly below the $3,000 mark.

Why can a single economic data point make the crypto market so sensitive? Essentially, interest rates are the key switch for global capital flows.

When the Fed insists on maintaining high interest rates, US assets act like a giant magnet, attracting global money. Why would investors take the risk of entering the crypto market? Instead, they might prefer to buy US Treasuries for interest, or deposit money in banks to enjoy fixed deposit yields—safe and steady. This also explains why recent markets have always felt "bloodless," with Bitcoin struggling to push higher.

There’s also a variable stirring market sentiment. US President Trump publicly stated that the condition for the Fed Chair’s election is to support rate cuts, emphasizing the importance of rate cuts multiple times. This political and policy game could become a key variable influencing market expectations and may trigger future volatility.

Currently, crypto investors need to closely monitor two directions: first, whether upcoming economic data can bolster expectations for rate cuts; second, how policy-level voices will evolve. In the short term, the high-interest-rate environment will continue to exert pressure on the crypto market.

BTC1,55%

ETH3,35%

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MetaverseHomeless

· 2025-12-28 11:10

It's the GDP data again causing trouble; the crypto world is getting hit again. No more rate cuts, the US dollar is the real daddy. Trump is there shouting for rate cuts, but the Fed just won't listen, and we're the ones getting trapped. Wait, is this GDP data real or fake? Why is it suddenly so strong? In a high-interest-rate environment, what coins are worth playing? It's better to just lie back and earn interest from government bonds. There's no hope in the short term, brothers. This is the reality.

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StableGeniusDegen

· 2025-12-26 17:02

It's the same old story. When GDP is high, there's no rate cut, and the crypto circle is left out in the cold. 87% chance—can we get some new ideas? It's always the same routine. Trump wants to cut rates, but the Federal Reserve refuses. If these two clash, cryptocurrencies will have no future. High interest rates are a killing blow. No matter how hard Bitcoin tries, it's all in vain. Wait, are these GDP figures real? Feels like we've been duped again. People are foolish and have lots of money. The high yields from government bonds are tempting. Who's still playing with crypto? The term "blood shortage" is used perfectly. It really feels like the market is out of juice. Political games > economic data. Remember this rule, and you'll be fine. Short-term, it's dead; long-term? Who knows.

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ApeEscapeArtist

· 2025-12-25 11:53

It's the GDP data messing things up again. If I had known earlier, we should have just accumulated government bonds.

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FOMOSapien

· 2025-12-25 11:47

Here we go again, whenever GDP exceeds expectations, we get cut down.

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GasFeeSobber

· 2025-12-25 11:40

It's another case of GDP data messing things up, really outrageous.

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GateUser-2fce706c

· 2025-12-25 11:32

The key to this correction is actually to watch Trump's side actions. I've always said that policy is the decisive factor, and now it's finally confirmed.

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