This past year, Bitcoin has experienced many ups and downs, but the current consolidation appears somewhat subdued.

Unlike the "Santa Claus rally" typical of the traditional stock market during the Christmas season, Bitcoin's fundamentals are currently weak, institutional funds are flowing out, and market participation has noticeably become more conservative.

**Prices are still stagnant**

BTC is now oscillating within the range of $86,400 to $88,000. Reflecting on the high point in October this year, around $126,000, it has now retraced approximately 30%. This decline isn't particularly shocking, but it has certainly altered the expectations of many.

Recent trends seem somewhat "lukewarm." One reason is that over $23 billion worth of options are set to expire this week. Many investors have chosen to hold their coins and stay on the sidelines, leading to a significant reduction in trading volume before and after Christmas, and market volatility has also diminished. The futures market shows long positions piling up, which could actually mean that upward movement will face greater resistance.

**Institutional enthusiasm is waning**

Spot BTC ETFs have recently experienced noticeable net outflows. Just last week, nearly $500 million in funds exited, with a single-day outflow of $142 million on December 22. Even BlackRock's massive iBIT has seen substantial inflows since inception, but many of its positions are now in the red.

Interestingly, the real driving force behind this bull market isn't primarily macro factors like USD supply—Bitcoin halving does have an effect, but changes in institutional fund flows have a greater impact. The USD factor has not played a decisive role in this cycle.