The Federal Reserve is facing unprecedented political pressure. Recently, Trump voiced his opinions on social media, bluntly demanding that the new Fed Chair should proactively cut interest rates during a market upswing, and even issued a stern warning that anyone who disagrees with him would be unable to serve as Fed Chair. These remarks have stirred waves in the financial markets.

Trump's core logic is very clear: the current market "anomaly" is that good news has become bad news, with improving economic data triggering concerns about rate hikes, leading to a decline in the stock market. He believes inflation will naturally subside and that there is no need for further monetary tightening at this stage. From this perspective, he is essentially laying the groundwork for a rate cut.

The timing is also crucial. The current Fed Chair Powell's term will expire in May next year, and Trump is looking for a successor. The most favored candidate in the market is Haskett, who has a clear lead in polls (about 54% probability) and is known for advocating rate cuts. Other candidates, such as Kevin Waugh, are also under consideration. In other words, Trump is already preparing for a more moderate Fed.

This shift in policy expectations has immediately reflected in the commodities markets. Gold has become the biggest beneficiary. During the Asian trading session on December 24, spot gold broke through the psychological level of $4,500 per ounce, reaching a high of $4,525.83 per ounce, setting a new record high. Silver also followed suit, breaking through the historic high of $71.75 per ounce. This rally saw a slight correction before the Christmas market closure on December 25, with spot gold retreating to around $4,480 per ounce.

The reason gold can hit new highs is supported by multiple factors. Besides the rate cut expectations driven by Trump’s pressure, there are also safe-haven demand due to escalating geopolitical tensions, a weakening US dollar index, and declining real interest rates. More importantly, global central banks' continued gold purchases provide long-term demand support. The combination of these forces is enough to push gold prices higher and higher.

For the cryptocurrency market, this trend has clear reference significance. Gold is generally regarded as a safe-haven asset, and Bitcoin is increasingly being defined as "digital gold" in many scenarios. When gold rises due to risk aversion, Bitcoin often attracts attention as well. If the Fed is ultimately forced to adopt an easing policy, dollar liquidity will improve accordingly, which usually boosts the overall valuation of risk assets. As a representative of risk assets, cryptocurrencies will naturally benefit.

However, it is important to note that policy expectations and actual implementation often differ. No matter how tough Trump’s rhetoric is, it ultimately depends on whether the Fed will truly compromise. Additionally, variables such as international situations and inflation data can at any time disrupt current market expectations. For traders, this period requires more cautious assessment of policy reversals and regulatory risks.