#预测市场 Seeing CZ's year-end remarks, some of his words have triggered my thoughts.

He said that the penetration rate of cryptocurrencies is still less than 1%, and the market size still has several orders of magnitude of growth potential—that sounds very encouraging, but I want to say that this macro growth potential is precisely the area where risks are most easily overlooked.

Market predictions are booming, AI Agent trading products are also being hotly promoted, but CZ himself made it very clear—if a strategy is truly so effective, why would the project team sell it to you? When everyone is using the same tools, returns will be continuously diluted. This actually reminds us of a simple truth: there is no free lunch.

I agree more with his other point about investing—that long-term execution capability of the team is more important than short-term trend switching. Projects that change direction every three months usually indicate that the founders themselves haven't thought it through. For us investors, that means even greater risk.

There are indeed many opportunities in the future, but opportunities never truly disappear. What we should really be cautious about is that when seeing growth potential, we tend to lower our emphasis on position management and risk control. Even with the biggest long-cycle dividends, if you stumble at a certain point, it can lead to complete failure. So my advice remains the same old story—diversify your portfolio, maintain a long-term mindset, and carefully consider each step before taking it.