#预测市场 Seeing the probability of Bitcoin surpassing $100,000 this year on Polymarket drop to 11%, I was reminded of some investment stories I've encountered over the past few years.

Market forecasts are like weather predictions; their accuracy is often lower than we imagine. When the probability drops sharply from a high level, what does that indicate? It suggests that many people are chasing an overhyped expectation. Whether Bitcoin can rise again to $100,000 is less a technical issue and more a psychological one—too many are betting on a low-probability event.

I've always believed that a prudent approach isn't about betting on who is right or wrong, but about asking yourself a few questions: Is my position size reasonable? Can I really withstand a 50% drop in this investment? Has my asset allocation become unbalanced because of a particular asset?

Instead of fixating on the ups and downs of forecast numbers, it's better to spend time reviewing your holdings. Set stop-loss levels, clarify your risk tolerance, and maintain sufficient cash reserves—these seemingly simple practices often determine the final outcome in volatile markets. In the long run, staying alive is more important than making money.