2026 Markets at a Crossroads: Where Gold, Crypto, and Tech Equities Head Next — A Deep Dive Into Major Bank Forecasts

As 2025 wraps up with mixed results across asset classes, leading financial institutions are painting starkly different pictures for 2026. From precious metals surging on geopolitical concerns to cryptocurrencies caught between competing cycle theories, here’s what the consensus — and contrarians — are expecting.

Precious Metals: Gold and Silver Shine Amid Uncertainty

Gold’s Remarkable 2025 Run Sets Stage for Further Gains

The yellow metal’s 60% rally in 2025 — its best year since 1979 — wasn’t accidental. Falling interest rates from the Federal Reserve, relentless central bank accumulation, and simmering geopolitical tensions created a perfect storm for gold demand. The World Gold Council suggests this isn’t ending in 2026.

Under baseline scenarios, gold could appreciate another 5–15%, with more extreme cases (global slowdown + aggressive Fed pivot) potentially seeing 15–30% upside. Major banks aren’t being shy: Goldman Sachs targets USD 4,900/oz, while Bank of America pushes even higher at USD 5,000/oz by year-end. The logic is straightforward — fiscal deficits will keep ballooning, central banks won’t stop buying, and geopolitical tail risks remain.

Silver Breaks Free From Gold’s Shadow

Silver’s performance in 2025 outshone gold itself, driven by the Silver Institute’s warnings of structural supply deficits. Industrial demand remains robust, investment interest is recovering, and new supply isn’t keeping pace. This mismatch is expected to intensify in 2026.

UBS has raised 2026 forecasts to USD 58–60/oz with potential to touch USD 65/oz. Bank of America similarly projects USD 65/oz, suggesting the precious metals complex will remain a favored hedge against macro uncertainty.

Cryptocurrency: Diverging Visions on Bitcoin and Ethereum’s Next Chapter

Bitcoin at an Inflection Point — Institutions Split on Cycle Dynamics

Bitcoin’s 2025 was a rollercoaster: it hit all-time highs before fading to end nearly flat. For 2026, the narrative fractures.

Standard Chartered downgraded its Bitcoin target from USD 200,000 to USD 150,000, reasoning that corporate treasury purchases may dry up (though ETF flows could offset this). Bernstein also lands on USD 150,000 for 2026 but adds nuance: it believes Bitcoin has exited its traditional four-year cycle and entered an elongated bull phase, with potential to reach USD 200,000 by 2027. Morgan Stanley takes the opposite stance, insisting the four-year cycle still governs Bitcoin’s moves and warning that the bull run may be nearing exhaustion.

Current BTC price stands at $91.36K (as of early January 2026) with +1.78% 24-hour movement, suggesting price discovery remains active.

Ethereum’s Tokenization Play Captures Institutional Imagination

While Ethereum also ended 2025 flat, institutions are far more bullish. JPMorgan emphasizes the explosive potential of tokenization — the conversion of real-world assets into blockchain-based tokens — which leans heavily on Ethereum’s infrastructure. Tom Lee of BitMain paints an even bolder picture, arguing that tokenization will anchor the next crypto supercycle and projecting ETH at USD 20,000 in 2026, claiming Ethereum has bottomed.

ETH currently trades at $3.14K (+1.27% in 24 hours), leaving substantial room for these forecasts to play out.

Equities: The Nasdaq 100’s AI-Fueled Ascent

The Nasdaq 100 gained 22% in 2025 and is widely expected to continue climbing in 2026, riding the wave of AI-driven capex from hyperscalers. Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta are expected to maintain elevated spending — potentially hitting hundreds of billions cumulatively by 2026 — supporting chipmakers like NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom.

JPMorgan sees the S&P 500 potentially approaching 7,500, while Deutsche Bank paints an even rosier picture near 8,000 by year-end. Extrapolating from these S&P targets, the Nasdaq 100 could surpass 27,000 points in 2026. For Australian investors tracking USD valuations, 27,000 USD to AUD conversion would place the index at approximately 41,000–43,000 AUD (depending on exchange rates), underscoring the magnitude of potential gains.

Foreign Exchange: Dollar Divergence and Carry Trade Risks

EUR/USD: The Case for Euro Strength

EUR/USD surged 13% in 2025, and the divergence persists. With the Fed cutting rates while the ECB holds steady, most institutions see EUR/USD reaching 1.20 (JPMorgan, Nomura) to 1.22 (Bank of America) by year-end 2026. Morgan Stanley injects caution, predicting a rise to 1.23 followed by a retreat to 1.16 in H2 2026 if U.S. economic data outperforms.

USD/JPY: Carry Trade Unwind Risk Looms

This pair saw massive divergence among forecasters. JPMorgan and Barclays are bullish, with JPMorgan expecting USD/JPY to climb to 164 as BOJ hikes are priced in and Japan’s fiscal expansion weighs on yen appeal. Nomura and Citigroup warn of an opposite scenario: if U.S. macro softens, carry trades could unwind rapidly, sending USD/JPY lower to 140 or below before year-end.

Commodities: Crude Oil Faces Structural Oversupply Headwinds

Crude oil fell nearly 20% in 2025 as OPEC+ boosted output and U.S. shale production remained robust. For 2026, the downside bias is evident. Goldman Sachs sees WTI averaging around USD 52/barrel (Brent USD 56/barrel) in a bearish scenario, while JPMorgan similarly flags risks, projecting WTI near USD 54 (Brent USD 58) if supply surpluses persist. Demand growth moderation could compound these pressures.

The Bottom Line

2026 presents a bifurcated opportunity set: safe-haven assets (gold, silver) likely benefit from persistent macro uncertainty, while risk assets (equities, crypto) could deliver outsized returns if geopolitical risks subside and capex cycles sustain. The wildcard remains U.S. monetary and fiscal policy — any shift could rapidly reshape these forecasts.