Is gold heading towards $5000? Gold price forecasts for 2026 spark controversy

After a rapid surge in 2025 pushing precious metals above $4,300 per ounce, traders are seriously asking: Will the 2026 gold price forecasts break records or experience a sharp correction?

Data from the World Gold Council and major bank analysts indicate a strong likelihood of another rise, but with reservations about the sustainability of this long-term momentum.

What happened with gold price forecasts during 2025?

Last year saw a dramatic shift in precious metals. The average price reached $3,455, but the truth is deeper than the numbers.

In October 2025 alone, the ounce broke through the $4,300 level, then retreated toward $4,000 before the end of November. These fluctuations weren’t random—they reflected a real battle between conflicting economic forces.

Investors added $65.7 billion in new holdings of exchange-traded gold funds during the first half of the year. The numbers speak: ETF assets alone increased from $445 billion to $472 billion, a 6% jump in just one quarter.

And it wasn’t just investment demand. Central banks worldwide launched an unprecedented buying spree. China alone added over 65 tons in the first half, while Turkey increased its reserves above 600 tons. Data tells a clear story: 44% of global central banks now hold gold reserves, up from 37% a year earlier.

Gold price forecasts 2026: Is the rise continuing?

Consensus is far from doubt. HSBC predicted gold reaching $5,000 during the first half of 2026, with an average around $4,600 annually. Goldman Sachs raised its forecast to $4,900. Bank of America set a ceiling at $5,000 as a potential peak, with an average of $4,400.

The common range among analysts extends from $4,800 to $5,000 as a peak, and $4,200 to $4,800 as an annual average.

But what justifies this optimism?

Global demand for gold is relentlessly rising

The numbers point in one direction. In Q2 2025 alone, total demand for precious metals reached 1,249 tons, up 3% annually in volume but up 45% in dollar value. This means investors are buying more aggressively at higher prices—a confident sign.

Gold ETFs are approaching a historic peak. Managed assets reached 3,838 tons, very close to the previous high of 3,929 tons. This proximity to a historical peak sends a message: investors are betting on continued upward movement.

North America accounts for more than half of global demand, with just 345.7 tons in the first half of the year. Europe follows with 148.4 tons. Bloomberg data reveals that 28% of new investors in developed markets added gold to their portfolios for the first time—promising sustained demand from wealth holders who haven’t exited the markets yet.

Central banks will not stop buying

The issue isn’t whether central banks will continue buying, but how much.

In Q1 2025, central banks worldwide added 244 tons—over 24% above the five-year quarterly average. This isn’t seasonal correction; it’s a genuine strategic shift.

The driving force is clear: a desire to diversify reserves away from the US dollar. China leads this trend smoothly, adding 65+ tons in the first half, continuing for 22 consecutive months. Turkey and India follow immediately.

The World Gold Council expects central bank purchases to remain the main driver supporting gold price forecasts through the end of 2026, especially from emerging markets trying to protect their currencies from exchange rate volatility.

The only bottleneck: supply

Mine production reached 856 tons in Q1 2025—a new record, yes, but only a 1% annual increase. The gap between demand and supply widened, not narrowed.

Worse still: recycled gold decreased by 1% during the same period. Owners prefer to hold onto their assets rather than sell, expecting further price increases. This deepens the supply shortage.

Extraction costs are rising rapidly too. The global average cost hit $1,470 per ounce mid-2025—the highest in a decade. Other foundational metals face similar pressures: energy, wages, infrastructure—all rising.

The result: any increase in supply will be slow and costly. This favors stability at higher levels for gold prices in 2026.

The Federal Reserve cuts rates and the dollar collapses

The trend is clear. In October 2025, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00%, the second cut since December 2024. Derivative markets price in an additional 25 basis point cut in December 2025.

BlackRock expects the interest rate to reach 3.4% by the end of 2026 in a moderate scenario—over 200 basis points below current levels.

The US dollar is already weakening. The dollar index has fallen 7.64% from its peak at the start of 2025 through November’s end. US 10-year bond yields dropped from 4.6% to 4.07%.

This double decline—in rates and the dollar—is exactly what gold needs to take off. The metal doesn’t pay interest, so when real interest rates fall, its appeal improves. And when the dollar weakens, it becomes cheaper for foreign buyers.

Bank of America analysts expect that stable real yields around 1.2% and a weak dollar could keep gold in a sustainable upward range through 2026.

Global central banks lean toward easing

It’s not just the Federal Reserve. The European Central Bank has also started cutting rates. The Bank of Japan remains in an easing policy. This global easing environment creates an ideal backdrop for gold demand.

When currencies weaken and real yields decline worldwide, the precious metal becomes a strategic choice rather than a luxury.

Inflation and sovereign debt remain concerns

The World Bank estimated a 35% increase in gold prices in 2025 and expects growth to slow in 2026 as inflationary pressures ease. But this doesn’t mean a price collapse—only cautious growth.

Most importantly, global public debt exceeds 100% of GDP according to the IMF. This debt burden keeps investors anxious. And when investors are anxious, they run to gold.

Bloomberg Economics data shows that 42% of major hedge funds increased their gold holdings during Q3 2025—this even before the latest Fed statements.

Geopolitical tensions are persistent

Trade conflicts between the US and China, tensions in the Middle East, instability around the Taiwan Strait—all added 7% to demand annually, according to Reuters.

When geopolitical fears spiked in July 2025, gold prices jumped above $3,400. As uncertainty persisted, prices rose further to reach $4,300 in October.

This behavior reflects a fundamental truth: gold moves swiftly with crises. With tensions likely to continue into 2026, the safe-haven metal remains poised for higher prices.

Gold approaches a new price range

Based on current technical data, gold trades around $4,065 through November 2025. Strong support appears at $4,000—a key level.

If this zone is broken with a decisive daily close, a decline toward $3,800 (Fibonacci retracement 50%) could be targeted. But momentum indicators suggest the market is neutral, not in a strong downtrend.

On the upside, the next resistance levels are at $4,200 and then $4,400. A clear breakout above $4,200 could open the way toward target levels of $4,600–$5,000.

The MACD remains above zero, confirming the overall bullish trend in the medium term. The chart suggests gold will stay in a sideways upward-sloping range between $4,000 and $4,220 soon, before the next breakout.

Different scenarios for 2026

Most likely bullish scenario (according to data): Continued global rate cuts, persistent dollar weakness, strong institutional buying from central banks, potential geopolitical tensions = gold at $4,800–$5,000.

Moderate scenario: Accelerated inflation slowdown, global monetary stability, profit-taking by investors = gold at $4,200–$4,600.

Least likely bearish scenario (least probable): Unexpected major economic shock, strong market confidence return = gold may decline but rarely below $3,800.

Regional gold price forecasts in the Middle East

In Egypt, if the bullish scenario hits $5,000 per ounce, it could translate to about 522,580 EGP—an increase of 158% from current prices.

In Saudi Arabia, the same scenario means approximately 18,750 to 19,000 SAR per ounce (at an exchange rate of 3.75-3.80 SAR/USD).

In the UAE, the conversion yields roughly 18,375 to 19,000 AED.

But remember: these forecasts assume exchange rate stability and sustained global demand—strong assumptions but not guaranteed.

Next steps

Data analysis indicates that the scenario of gold rising in 2026 is stronger than its correction. All fundamental factors point in one direction: weak real interest rates, central bank buying, strong investment demand, limited supply, geopolitical tensions.

The only caveat: any unexpected event—anticipated or not—could change the story. But based on current data, the upside risk is more realistic than the downside.

New and existing investors waiting for an entry point may find the coming period critical. Those already holding gold might see higher prices before the end of 2026.