December 26 Trading Hotspot Scan: Euro-Australia-New Zealand Exchange Rate and WTI Crude Oil Trend Analysis

As the Christmas holiday approaches, liquidity in major markets has significantly decreased. Notably, the US Federal Reserve has completed three rate cuts this year and is currently closely monitoring labor market and inflation trends. Milan believes that the core challenge facing the Fed lies in the potential rise in unemployment rate and the overestimation of non-farm payroll data, with actual employment growth showing signs of decline. Bank of America forecasts that the Fed will implement rate cuts in June and July next year, and expects the 10-year US Treasury yield to fall to a range of 4% to 4.25% by the end of the year, with the possibility of deeper declines. This outlook may provide short-term support for US stocks and other risk assets.

EUR/USD: Key Threshold at 1.1700

On Friday, EUR/USD rose slightly by 0.04%, reaching a high of 1.1793 during the session but still being capped below the 1.1800 level. Milan considers 1.1700 as the critical point determining the future direction. As long as EUR/USD stays above 1.1700, the upward trend will continue, with potential to challenge the 1.1900 and even 1.2000 levels.

Conversely, if it breaks below 1.1700 support, attention should be paid to a decline toward 1.1630, and possibly testing the 1.1500 level. Overall, the upward trend remains solid.

Technical reference points:

• Support: 1.1700, 1.1630, 1.1500
• Resistance: 1.1800, 1.1900, 1.2000

AUD/USD: Uptrend Unchanged, Watch for Consolidation Soon

AUD/USD performed modestly on Friday, with a daily increase of 0.02%, reaching a high of 0.6718. The current price is around 0.6700, with the medium-term uptrend not yet reversed. However, Milan reminds traders to be cautious of short-term correction risks.

If AUD/USD breaks below 0.6700, a pullback to around 0.6620 is expected. As long as it remains above 0.6620, the medium-term bullish trend may continue, with resistance levels at 0.6800 and 0.6900.

Technical reference points:

• Support: 0.6700, 0.6620, 0.6520
• Resistance: 0.6750, 0.6800, 0.6900

NZD/USD: Gann Line as Support, 0.5770 is Key

NZD/USD showed strength on Friday, with a daily increase of 0.05%, reaching a high of 0.5841. The price has broken above the Gann 2/1 line at 0.5770, but recent signs of weakening upward momentum suggest a possible pullback to the Gann line.

If resistance at 0.5850 holds, a decline to test the 0.5770 support is expected. As long as it stays above 0.5770, the medium-term rally could continue, with targets at 0.5900 and 0.6000.

Technical reference points:

• Support: 0.5800, 0.5770, 0.5730
• Resistance: 0.5850, 0.5900, 0.6000

WTI Crude Oil: Momentum Strengthening, Rebound Underway

WTI crude oil rose by 0.09% on Friday, reaching a high of $58.6. Milan notes that the AO indicator shows increasing upward momentum, suggesting that the decline since June may be facing a technical rebound correction.

If oil breaks above $59.0 and stabilizes, further upward movement toward $61.5 and even $64.5 is expected. However, a drop below $57.0 warrants caution for expanding downtrend risks.

Technical reference points:

• Support: 57.0, 55.0, 52.0
• Resistance: 59.0, 61.5, 64.5

Milan reminds traders: With liquidity thin during the Christmas holiday, caution should be exercised regarding volatility. Focus on key support and resistance levels of major currency pairs, and monitor the sustainability of the crude oil rebound.