Memory cycle reversal! South Asia Semiconductor's 1B process benefits unleashed, and behind the stock's challenge to the 190 yuan high, the supply side is being reshaped

The global DRAM market is experiencing a fierce reshaping on the supply side. The three major international memory manufacturers are adjusting their capacity layouts at an unprecedented speed to seize the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) market for artificial intelligence servers. This seemingly internal capacity transfer has triggered a supply shortage in the traditional DDR4 market by the end of 2025, and Nanya Technology (2408) is the most direct beneficiary of this wave of change.

Driven by optimistic signals from Micron and expectations of market supply-demand reversal, Nanya Technology’s stock performance today was strong, reaching a intraday high of 190 NT dollars, a new high for the wave, and closing at 189 NT dollars, up 7.08% for the day, with trading volume also expanding to over 117,000 shares. Behind this rally reflects the market’s reassessment of Nanya Technology’s future profitability prospects.

Process Technology Breakthrough and Product Line Transformation Driven by Dual Factors

Nanya Technology’s self-developed second-generation 10-nanometer process (1B) has entered the harvesting phase, which is the core support for today’s stock price rally. Compared to competitors, Nanya Technology’s yield and mass production efficiency in the 1B process are outstanding. According to the latest data, 1B process products already account for over 30% of 2025 bit output, with 16Gb DDR5 5600 products shipped stably, and higher-speed specifications like 6400 MT/s entering verification stages.

What does this mean? Nanya Technology is successfully narrowing the technological gap with international giants in the DDR5 field. While maintaining DDR4 pricing power, the penetration of high-end products like DDR5 is directly improving the product mix. Since the average selling price (ASP) of DDR5 is much higher than DDR4, once the shipment ratio of 16Gb DDR5 in the 1B process exceeds the 10% revenue threshold, the gross margin recovery effect will be quite significant.

External Environment Acceleration: DDR4 Shortages and Capacity Displacement Effect

What truly shocks the market is the rapid reversal of external supply-demand structures. Changxin Memory (CXMT) recently announced that its DDR4 monthly capacity in 2026 will be halved from 20,000 to 10,000 units; Micron’s consumer brand Crucial also announced the discontinuation of some DDR4 specifications in early 2026. Against the backdrop of major global manufacturers reducing DDR4, Nanya Technology, with its large and efficient DDR4 capacity, has become a target for system manufacturers to rush for inventory.

This cyclical reversal has triggered a restructuring of price elasticity. Institutional investors estimate that Nanya Technology’s ASP growth rate this quarter could be significantly revised upward from the original forecast of 35% to 55%, a rare increase in memory cycles over the past decade.

Target Price Raised to 230 NT Dollars, Can the Future Trend Continue?

While the stock price hits new highs, institutional investors are collectively raising their profit forecasts for Nanya Technology in 2026. Major investment firms have significantly raised their target price from 160 NT dollars to 230 NT dollars, expecting 2026 gross margin to challenge a record high of 64.5%, with annual EPS growing from the previous estimate of 14 to 23.25 NT dollars.

From a technical perspective, Nanya Technology today remains above all moving averages, with RSI and KD indicators showing bullish alignment, indicating short-term upward momentum. However, investors should note that year-end seasonal factors and high capital concentration in the memory group may trigger short-term consolidation and profit-taking pressures.

From a long-term perspective, Nanya Technology has the characteristics of shifting from a traditional cyclical stock to an AI infrastructure beneficiary stock. The key to its future stock trend will depend on the movement of DRAM spot and contract prices in early 2026. As long as the upward price trend continues, Nanya Technology’s bullish journey has just begun.