Year-End Soybean Selloff: Deliveries Climb Amid Market Weakness

RunWhenCut · 2026-01-04T16:03:24+00:00

Soybean futures declined significantly before the New Year, with January contracts dropping 13-16 cents and the national cash benchmark retreating. Other segments, like soymeal and soy oil, also weakened, while managed money reduced long positions. USDA export sales fell short, but stronger sales to China were noted, indicating a shift in the market. Trading resumes Friday after the holiday.

RunWhenCut

2026-01-04 16:03:24

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As trading wound down before the New Year holiday, soybean futures experienced significant pressure, with January contracts sliding 13 to 16 cents by session’s end. The market showed notable activity in the delivery space, with 1,062 notices issued against January soybeans, signaling active physical settlement interest. Meanwhile, the cmdtyView national cash benchmark retreated to $9.64 3/4 per bushel, down 15 1/4 cents, reflecting broad weakness across the complex.

Weakness Extends Across the Soybean Complex

The decline wasn’t isolated to beans alone. Soymeal futures dropped $1.50 to $2.90 per ton, while Soy Oil futures fell 77 to 88 points. Interestingly, January soymeal saw no deliveries, while bean oil registered 7 notices. This divergence suggests different market dynamics within each segment of the soybean crush.

Contract Performance and Money Flow

Front-month January soybeans settled at $10.30 1/2, representing the 15 3/4 cent decline mentioned earlier. March contracts closed at $10.47 1/2, down 14 3/4 cents, while May 26 soybeans finished at $10.61, down 13 1/2 cents. The softer cash market at $9.64 3/4 provided the backdrop for these declines.

Commitment of Traders data, delayed due to year-end backlog, revealed that managed money held a net long position of 110,403 contracts—a reduction of 37,375 contracts from the previous week. This de-risking activity added to the selling pressure in the final trading sessions of the year.

USDA Sales Data Disappoints, But China Pace Accelerates

The USDA’s weekly export report for the week ending December 18 showed 1.056 million metric tons of soybeans sold, falling short of trade expectations that ranged from 1.4 to 2.4 MMT. While this represented a 55.94% decline from the prior week, it was up 7.9% year-over-year. More significantly, cumulative sales to China through mid-December totaled 6.5 MMT—a notable contrast to the previous trade-conflict period (2018/19 marketing year), when only 3.5 MMT had been sold by the same point in the season. This suggests a different export trajectory in the current environment.

Meal sales registered 299,131 MT, landing at the lower end of the 200,000 to 500,000 MT range, while soy oil sales of 49,197 MT exceeded expectations of 0 to 24,000 MT for 2025/26, accompanied by net reductions of 23,500 MT for the 2026/27 crop year.

Looking Ahead

With U.S. markets closed on New Year’s Day, trading resumes Friday morning at 8:30 am CST, setting the stage for fresh developments in what has already proven to be a volatile period for soybean futures.

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