#预测市场 After reading this in-depth analysis of market prediction by Rhythm, I have to say—this truly reshaped my understanding of market information.

In the past, when I followed traders, I mainly looked at their historical returns and style compatibility, but now I realize there’s a deeper underlying logic being overlooked: **Price itself is intelligence**.

The example of Coinbase’s earnings report is particularly interesting—The CEO temporarily changed the wording of the conference call to settle certain prediction market bets. It sounds absurd, but on the flip side, if the odds on a certain option on Polymarket suddenly fluctuate abnormally in the opposite direction, it could indicate a "known but undisclosed" fact behind it.

This provides a direct insight into follow-trade strategies: **Not only should we observe the trader’s position changes, but also pay attention to those abnormal odds signals in the market.** Sometimes, an expert’s early position might be aligned with betting on outcomes that only a few people know about in prediction markets. In other words, top traders and top prediction market players might be using two different methods to anticipate the same upcoming event.

Of course, the risks here are very real. The informational advantage in prediction markets often implies insider knowledge, and those who follow the trend are usually the last to take the bait. So, the true strategy should be: find traders who have consistently "got the rhythm right in advance" in history. Their ability to capture market signals surpasses that of ordinary participants. Meanwhile, data from prediction markets can serve as another dimension to verify the real skill level of these top traders.

Practice makes perfect. Once this prediction market reporting system produces more cases, there will likely be unexpected gains.