Polymarket's Hidden Truth: Why 70% Traders Are Bleeding While 30% Rake in Billions

New data compiled from on-chain research sheds light on the stark reality of Polymarket’s user base. The prediction market has processed trades across 1.7+ million addresses, yet the distribution of outcomes reveals a troubling concentration of winners and losers.

The Winner-Takes-All Narrative

Only 30% of Polymarket’s participants have achieved profitability, while the overwhelming 70% majority find themselves underwater on their positions. This disparity becomes even more pronounced when examining who’s capturing the rewards: the top 0.0385% of addresses—essentially a microscopic fraction of traders—control over 70% of all realized profits, totaling $3.7 billion.

This elite group’s dominance underscores a fundamental truth about prediction markets: sophisticated traders and market makers with superior information or risk management capabilities systematically outperform casual participants.

Where the Real Losses Pile Up

Diving deeper into the loss side, the picture gets clearer. More than 63.5% of addresses have lost under $1,000, suggesting many retail participants take small experimental positions. However, the exceptions are notable: 149 traders absorbed losses exceeding $1 million each—a sobering reminder of the leverage and capital at play.

On the profit side, roughly 25% of addresses sit in a comfortable but modest range, earning between $0 and $1,000. Despite their numbers, these small winners collectively represent less than 1% of total profits, highlighting how top-heavy the profit distribution truly is.

What This Means for the Market

The data exclusively reflects realized gains and losses from closed positions, offering a snapshot of actual settled outcomes rather than open floating bets. This distinction matters: many traders holding speculative positions don’t yet know if they’ll join the profitable 30% or the struggling 70%.

The concentration pattern isn’t unusual in prediction markets—it mirrors traditional financial markets where skill, experience, and capital density determine outcomes. For retail traders eyeing Polymarket, the message is clear: the platform attracts massive capital, but the odds of consistent profitability remain firmly against the average participant.