A recent phenomenon has been dominating the crypto scene—Bitcoin in the US market has experienced negative premium for 21 consecutive days. This is not just small fluctuations; it signals a collapse of the entire narrative framework.

Let's start with the basics. What does negative premium in Bitcoin mean? It means that the Bitcoin price in the compliant market is actually lower than the global average price. This sounds counterintuitive. Historically, the US market has been known for mature regulation and strict risk control, so investors are usually willing to pay a premium for this "safety." Now, however, with a continuous discount for 21 days, the underlying logic is clear: all those once-blown-up stories are now fading into obscurity.

Looking back at last year's frenzy. Bitcoin's price once approached 120,000. How hot was the narrative at that time?

The four-year cycle of mining reward halving was depicted as an inevitable surge; the approval of US spot ETFs was met with cheers of "institutional money rushing in"; there were even rumors that the US government would include Bitcoin in its strategic reserves, directly comparing it to gold. So, what’s the situation now?

The halving indeed happened, but miners had already stockpiled coins in advance to hedge, turning what should have been a positive into a negative. The ETF launch is real, but now it looks more like a "channel for institutions to buy at high levels and then collectively exit"—since there are now cheaper, compliant products, who would still pay for those old high-fee products? As for the strategic reserve talk, it’s just a fairy tale woven by capital; no policy draft has even appeared.

How cold is the market now? Trading volume has shrunk to an unbearable level. It’s not just a price decline; it’s a complete exhaustion of the entire ecosystem.