The most frequently asked question lately is: "When will BTC break $100,000?" Honestly, I don't have any particular expectations for this milestone. What truly determines whether the market will continue its bull run or enter a sideways consolidation is the upcoming large-scale influx of funds from the US retirement savings system—401(k). This capital is the real driving force to change the market landscape, far more important than any psychological level.

First, let's talk about what a 401(k) is—it's a US retirement savings plan with a total size of $12.5 trillion, nearly dozens of times the entire crypto market capitalization. In the past, the Biden administration imposed restrictions on crypto investments, but now these restrictions have been lifted, effectively opening the door for this massive amount of capital to enter the crypto market. Some might say that it takes time for funds to flow in, and that's true, but markets always move on expectations first and actual implementation later. Remember the ETF approval in 2024? The market actually started moving six months in advance. This time, the anticipation of 401(k) inflows is also enough to support BTC breaking $100,000.

Looking at this data makes it clear: since 2025, retail investors have net sold a total of 247,000 BTC, while institutions have been accumulating all the way. Currently, institutional holdings account for 24%, and market dominance has long shifted from retail investors to institutions. The retail trading pattern of chasing rallies and selling on dips is now a thing of the past. The new game rules are institutions slowly building positions, prices steadily rising, and sideways movement replacing pullbacks—by the time retail investors react, the low-cost chips are already gone.

The current resistance level at $98,500 does indeed have some pressure, but that's just institutions doing their final shakeout. The real breakout is actually driven behind the scenes by the anticipated influx of 401(k) funds.