Global central banks are staging a "contrast drama." One steps on the accelerator, while the other tightly grips the steering wheel.

Actions on the Japanese side are clear. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Haruhiko recently spoke frankly: as long as the economy and inflation continue to improve, the pace of rate hikes will not stop. This is a signal that Japan is officially bidding farewell to the easing era and entering a phase of monetary normalization.

What about the Federal Reserve? The situation is much more complicated. It cut rates once in December last year, but the latest dot plot reveals some interesting information—the possibility of one more cut by 2026 at most. While expressing dovish rhetoric, their actions are becoming increasingly hawkish.

How will this policy divergence affect the crypto market? Changes in the interest rate environment have always been an important reference for the valuation of assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Japan’s rate hike cycle and the Fed’s pause stance will bring short-term volatility to the market. But from a long-term perspective in 2026, the shrinking global liquidity outlook is gradually taking shape, which could redefine investors’ asset allocation logic towards risk assets.