What does the Bitcoin options market reveal? Why are traders refocusing on the $100,000 level

【ChainNews】Recently, traders’ actions have revealed an interesting signal: they are once again focusing on the $100,000 mark for Bitcoin.

Looking at data from the options market, it’s quite intriguing. According to Deribit statistics, the open interest for Bitcoin options with a strike price of $100,000 and expiration on January 30th has reached its peak. This volume is more than twice the notional value of the second most popular contract—$80,000 strike price puts expiring on the same day. The numbers may not seem particularly large, but a key point is that the sentiment is very consistent.

Wintermute’s OTC trading head Jake Ostrovskis noted that this one-sided betting was formed based on large positions accumulated last week. His assessment is that, although put options still carry a premium in the current curve, it has significantly diminished. In other words, the market is finally no longer assuming the most pessimistic downward scenario will continue, and the situation has slightly stabilized.

Rails CEO Satraj Bambra offered a more specific technical perspective. He believes that retesting the $100,000 to $106,000 range is very likely—this is a common move in bearish structures. But to truly turn bullish? Bitcoin needs to recover and stabilize above $106,000 on the weekly chart before it can reattempt hitting new all-time highs.

In summary, traders’ actions reflect a subtle shift in market sentiment: pessimism is fading, but caution remains. $100,000 is not just a number; it carries market expectations for the trajectory after 2025.