The 2025 stock market is looking very promising, especially with AI concept stocks frequently hitting new highs. But if you ask hedge fund legend Ray Dalio what he is most optimistic about, the answer might surprise you—his focus is not on stocks at all.

Dalio recently highlighted an often-overlooked fact: what truly determines investment success is not how much a particular stock has risen, but the devaluation of the money you hold.

Taking the US stock market as an example. On the surface, the US stocks rose 18% in 2025, which sounds good. But from a different perspective—measured in gold—the US stocks actually declined 28%. Even more painfully, the US dollar has depreciated against gold by as much as 39%.

The logic behind this is simple: all global sovereign currencies are depreciating, just at different speeds. In 2025, the performance of the US dollar is:

Decreased less than 1% against the Japanese Yen, depreciated 4% against the Chinese Yuan, 12% against the Euro, and 13% against the Swiss Franc. These figures seem moderate, but combined, they spell a big problem.

And gold? As the world's oldest safe-haven asset and the second-largest reserve asset, it has increased by 65% when priced in dollars. This is not a speculative story, but a straightforward reflection of currency devaluation.

The core message Dalio wants to convey is: when your unit of account itself is depreciating, even high percentage returns can be illusory. The biggest investment story of 2025 is actually how the entire "currency—debt—market—economy" machine is resetting itself. Investors who only look at stock numbers may miss more important signals.