#美联储利率政策 US Treasury yields are expected to return to 4%, and looking at this wave of traders' actions, it's clear the market is holding back a big move. The $80 million in premiums poured in, with 171,153 contracts skyrocketing by 300% in a week—this isn't the scale retail investors can handle—big institutions always have the sharpest instincts.

The key point is that the Federal Reserve's rate cut pace has now become a suspenseful factor. Investors are weighing economic data against Fed officials' speeches, indicating that market expectations for future policies are still in a state of flux. The 10-year yield has fallen from 4.20% to 4.16%. It seems like a small fluctuation, but the leverage effect in the options market amplifies these movements' gains.

If you're following strategies related to US Treasuries, you should pay special attention to their risk management logic. For macro-driven markets like this, setting stop-loss levels for individual positions is crucial—if the Fed's policy signals unexpectedly reverse, yields could quickly move in the opposite direction. It's recommended to adjust your position size according to your risk appetite rather than going all-in on a single direction. After all, the time decay of options contracts is an invisible knife—what seems like a high-probability bet could still suffer losses due to time costs.