2026-01-06 11:29:23

Recently, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet has formed a MACD golden cross on the monthly chart. The last time this signal appeared was in 2019—just before Bitcoin launched its parabolic rally.

The logic behind this is actually quite simple: liquidity is the fuel for risk assets. When central banks loosen their policies and funds become abundant, all risk assets tend to rise. Looking at the enlarged chart, you'll notice that the previous downward trend has shown clear signs of reversal.

Although quantitative easing has not officially started yet, the market already has that feel—appearing like QE, acting like QE. The key question is: will this time repeat the story of 2019, or is history just rhyming with some new changes?

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FrogInTheWell

· 01-09 05:55

I did make a profit during the 2019 wave, but this time feels different. History rhymes but doesn't repeat; there are too many variables this time. Liquidity is coming, so there are definitely opportunities. The key question is whether the central bank will really loosen monetary policy. To put it nicely, it's like QE; to put it bluntly, it's just testing the waters. Rather than guessing the outcome, it's better to let the volume speak.

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SandwichTrader

· 01-07 17:33

I missed that wave in 2019, this time I have to go all in.

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LightningPacketLoss

· 01-06 11:59

I fully bet on that wave in 2019. Should I do the same this time? Feels a bit different. --- Liquidity has arrived, which is indeed exciting, but don't forget that the current macro environment is completely different from back then. --- Rhyme? I think it's just repeating. The central banks' tricks really have no new ideas. --- I trusted the MACD golden cross once, but I was caught off guard. This time, I've learned to be smarter. --- Here they go again. The market really treats the central bank as an ATM. --- History not only rhymes, I think it's just copy-pasting, but this time the risk is definitely greater.

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Liquidated_Larry

· 01-06 11:58

That wave in 2019 was really a huge profit. If I could do it all over again, I would go all in directly.

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StealthDeployer

· 01-06 11:57

I saw that wave in 2019, but this time it feels different. The macro environment has changed.

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RetiredMiner

· 01-06 11:55

In 2019, I was fully invested. Can it reach that height again this time? Or will I get cut again?

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RugpullSurvivor

· 01-06 11:35

In 2019, I fully bottomed out that wave, but this time I don't dare to go all in... too many variables History rhymes but doesn't repeat, it looks like QE but who knows Golden cross is just a golden cross, don't overthink it, just follow the liquidity Wait, is the central bank really going to loosen monetary policy this time or is it just a fake move? I'm tired of playing the liquidity game, I still need to look at the fundamentals, my friend MACD again and 2019 again, I've heard this story too many times... and the result? People betting on the central bank always get cut, a painful lesson for me Rather than studying the golden cross, it's better to see if there's a new narrative emerging Repeating history? Uh, the crypto world has never repeated... every time it's a new pitfall At this point, do you still dare to chase the rally? Am I crazy?

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ApeWithNoChain

· 01-06 11:35

In 2019, I watched Bitcoin soar from over 3000 to 13000. Will this time be even more intense? Once liquidity loosens, it won't stop rising. To put it simply, that's all there is to it.

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