Many people discuss the BTC price in January 2026, often falling into a single narrative, such as ETF or macro easing.

But on Polymarket, it is clear that the win rates across different price ranges are not completely dominated by any one narrative.

This indicates a fact: the market is more inclined to view 2026 as a mature phase of the halving cycle rather than a unilateral acceleration phase.

At this point, on-chain activity, long-term holder behavior, and derivatives leverage levels all exert constraints on the price.

The odds themselves convey that extreme prices require extreme conditions, and these conditions do not currently have overwhelming advantages within the current information structure.

Compared to calling trades, understanding the win rate logic is a truly reusable decision-making framework.

View the full prediction market:

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