In @Polymarket's prediction markets, the odds distribution for Bitcoin price ranges in January 2026 is itself a map of market sentiment.

The implied probability corresponding to the current median price range is significantly higher than that of the extreme high and low price ranges, indicating that the market is not betting on a one-sided crazy rally, but is more inclined towards rational pricing in the mid to late cycle.

When combined with historical patterns, Bitcoin tends to enter a high-volatility but increasingly divergent phase 12 to 18 months after halving. The win probability structure provided by the prediction market is actually more sober than the sentiment on social media.

This is the value of prediction markets: expressing judgments with capital rather than slogans.

I personally believe that the odds in the mid to high ranges have a more reasonable risk-reward ratio, reflecting both the possibility of continued liquidity inflows and leaving room for macro uncertainties.

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@Polymarket @PotentialAGI