2026 Market Outlook: What Major Financial Institutions Predict for Gold, Bitcoin, Stocks and Beyond

The Commodities Story: Gold and Silver Lead the Rally Expectations

Gold’s Momentum Set to Continue

The precious metals complex enters 2026 with strong tailwinds. Gold delivered a stunning 60% gain in 2025 — its best year since 1979 — driven by Federal Reserve rate cuts, sustained central bank accumulation, and geopolitical flashpoints. The World Gold Council sees this trend persisting through 2026.

A moderate scenario projects gold climbing 5–15% through year-end, while more aggressive projections in the event of a global economic downturn and aggressive Fed easing could push prices 15–30% higher. Goldman Sachs targets USD 4,900 per ounce by 2026, supported by continued central bank demand and fund inflows. Bank of America takes an even more bullish stance, forecasting USD 5,000/oz as expanding U.S. fiscal deficits and rising government debt levels become increasingly supportive for safe-haven assets.

Silver: The Unsung Outperformer

Often overshadowed, silver has captured outsized attention in 2025, outpacing gold as the gold-to-silver ratio compressed sharply. The Silver Institute points to a structural supply deficit in global markets — industrial demand remains robust, investment flows are recovering, and supply growth is decelerating.

This imbalance is expected to persist and potentially intensify through 2026, providing a fundamental backdrop for further price appreciation. UBS has raised its 2026 silver target to USD 58–60 per ounce, with potential upside toward USD 65. Bank of America shares this constructive view, also projecting USD 65/oz by year-end 2026.

The Crypto Divide: Bitcoin’s Cycle Question vs. Ethereum’s Tokenization Potential

Bitcoin: The Four-Year Cycle Debate

Bitcoin’s 2025 performance — touching new highs before retreating to end flat — has sparked divergent views for 2026. Standard Chartered has revised its Bitcoin price target downward to USD 150,000 from USD 200,000, citing anticipated slower bitcoin purchases by corporate treasury programs, though ETF inflows should remain a significant tailwind.

Bernstein echoes the USD 150,000 call for 2026 but takes a more constructive longer-term stance, projecting USD 200,000 by 2027. Crucially, Bernstein argues Bitcoin has broken free from its traditional four-year cyclical pattern, now operating within an extended bull framework. Morgan Stanley dissents sharply, asserting the four-year cycle remains intact and warning the current bull market is approaching exhaustion.

Ethereum: Tokenization as the Next Catalyst

Ethereum’s 2025 proved more volatile than Bitcoin, also finishing nearly flat. Yet institutional sentiment for 2026 is notably optimistic. JPMorgan emphasizes the transformative potential of tokenization — the migration of traditional financial assets onto blockchain infrastructure — with Ethereum positioned as the foundational platform.

Tom Lee, Chairman of BitMain, goes further, predicting Ethereum bottomed in 2025 and forecasting USD 20,000 by year-end 2026 as the tokenization wave ignites the next crypto supercycle. This represents a conviction bet on Ethereum’s utility beyond speculative trading.

Equities: The AI Spending Story Powers Nasdaq 100 Higher

The Nasdaq 100 gained 22% in 2025, outpacing the S&P 500’s 18% climb for its third consecutive year of outperformance. Most institutions expect this dynamic to continue in 2026, underpinned by persistent artificial intelligence investment.

JPMorgan highlights that hyperscale data centre operators — Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta among them — are expected to sustain elevated capital expenditure levels, with cumulative spending potentially reaching several hundred billion dollars by 2026. This investment wave should continue supporting key index constituents including NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom.

JPMorgan’s base case projects the S&P 500 could approach 7,500 by 2026, while Deutsche Bank has outlined more optimistic scenarios pointing toward 8,000 by year-end, contingent on robust earnings growth and continued AI-driven investment. Based on these S&P 500 projections, the Nasdaq 100 could surpass 27,000 points in 2026, according to analyst calculations.

Currency Markets: Divergent Monetary Policies Drive Forex Outlook

EUR/USD: Likely to Extend Higher, But Watch H2 2026

EUR/USD surged 13% in 2025 — its largest annual gain in nearly eight years — as the U.S. dollar depreciated across the board. The key driver: divergent monetary policy paths. The Federal Reserve has cut rates while the European Central Bank has kept policy steady.

JPMorgan and Nomura forecast EUR/USD could reach 1.20 by year-end 2026, while Bank of America is more bullish, targeting 1.22. However, Morgan Stanley cautions that this story could reverse in the second half of 2026 as the U.S. economy potentially outperforms Europe. Their projection: EUR/USD rises to 1.23 initially, then retreats to 1.16 by H2 2026.

For reference, USD 200,000 converts to approximately GBP 160,000 at current rates, illustrating the strength of sterling against the dollar — a dynamic also playing out across broader currency pairs as dollar weakness persists.

USD/JPY: A Battle Between Rate Expectations and Carry Trade Mechanics

USD/JPY finished 2025 down roughly 1% after initially declining then rebounding. 2026 forecasts are starkly divergent.

JPMorgan and Barclays are bullish, with JPMorgan arguing that Bank of Japan rate hike expectations are already priced in, and fiscal expansion in Japan may weigh on the yen. They forecast USD/JPY rising to 164 by year-end 2026. Nomura takes the opposite view, contending that narrowing interest rate differentials between the U.S. and Japan will erode the appeal of yen carry trades. If U.S. macro data weakens, unwinding of these positions could trigger yen appreciation. Nomura projects USD/JPY falling to 140 before 2026 concludes.

Energy: Crude Oil Faces Headwinds Despite OPEC+ Caution

Crude oil prices fell nearly 20% in 2025 as OPEC+ restored production and U.S. output expanded. Looking ahead to 2026, institutional bias tilts bearish, with downside risks to pricing concentrated on potential oversupply.

Goldman Sachs has outlined a bearish scenario in which WTI crude averages around USD 52 per barrel and Brent around USD 56 per barrel throughout 2026. JPMorgan similarly flags downside risks, projecting WTI could average near USD 54 per barrel with Brent around USD 58, contingent on sustained supply surpluses and moderate global demand growth.

The key takeaway across all these markets: 2026 will be shaped by the interplay between monetary policy normalization, AI-driven capital allocation, geopolitical tensions, and shifts in currency valuations — with valuations in some areas already pricing in significant moves.