On June 8, 2026, OpenAI announced on its official website that it had confidentially submitted a draft S-1 registration statement to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for an IPO. Just a week earlier, its main competitor Anthropic completed the same confidential filing process. With their combined valuations approaching $2 trillion, these two leading AI companies are both targeting an IPO window in fall 2026.
Almost simultaneously, Elon Musk’s SpaceX has entered the IPO roadshow phase, aiming for a valuation between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion. The combined valuation of these three tech giants is nearing $4 trillion, setting the stage for the largest wave of IPOs in recent years on the U.S. stock market.
Why Top AI Companies Are Accelerating Their IPO Timelines
OpenAI’s IPO announcement did not disclose a specific timetable but made it clear that "submitting IPO documents gives us the option to enter the public market quickly when it best serves the company’s interests." Sources familiar with the matter revealed that OpenAI is working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, aiming to go public as early as this fall.
From a valuation perspective, the urgency of OpenAI’s IPO window is directly tied to the AI sector’s intense capital requirements. Michael Field, Morningstar’s Chief Equity Analyst, noted, "These companies are burning through cash to win the AI race, and public equity is currently the lowest-cost funding channel—especially in a rising interest rate environment."
Another critical driver is competitive "first-mover pressure." Anthropic has already completed its confidential filing and, in its latest funding round, reached a valuation of $965 billion—surpassing OpenAI’s $852 billion for the first time. Capital markets advisor Jeff Bernstein highlighted the core logic of this race: "It’s a competition for capital. If they go public first, they’ll capture a significant share of available IPO funds."
Historical data offers a cautionary perspective: The 10 largest U.S. IPOs saw a median return of -31% in their first year, with seven underperforming the S&P 500. Going public first doesn’t guarantee better stock performance, but in today’s AI sector, the risk of "slowing down" outweighs the risk of "leading the pack."
Can a $1 Trillion Valuation Stand Up to Public Market Scrutiny?
Valuation is always the central issue in IPO pricing. As of June 9, 2026, the AI sector is at a point of concentrated valuations and significant divergence.
OpenAI’s shareholder structure shows Microsoft as the largest holder with a 26.79% stake, followed by the OpenAI Foundation at 25.8%, and SoftBank at about 11.66%. Microsoft has invested roughly $13 billion in OpenAI, with its current stake valued at about $228.3 billion—a return multiple of 17.6x. SoftBank entered during the high-valuation phase, investing approximately $64.6 billion for a stake now worth about $99.3 billion, a 1.5x return.
However, rapid valuation growth comes with significant losses. OpenAI has previously warned investors that it does not expect to turn a profit until 2030. This "high growth paired with high losses" structural feature poses a challenge for OpenAI in public market pricing: How can it clearly articulate a path to profitability to secondary market investors, given its $852 billion private valuation?
From an industry perspective, Gil Luria, Managing Director at D.A. Davidson, pointed out, "OpenAI’s biggest concern is seeing public market capital dry up. Not only are SpaceX and Anthropic ahead in the IPO queue, but large public competitors could each raise billions through follow-on offerings." Valuation recalibration isn’t just a company-specific issue; it’s a systemic repricing that the entire AI sector must undergo as it transitions from private to public markets.
Will the Three Tech Giants’ IPOs Trigger Capital Outflows from the Crypto Market?
Since spring 2026, the crypto market has faced persistent net capital outflows. Bitcoin has continued to decline, hovering below $63,000—nearly halved from its October 2025 peak. Ether is approaching a 52-week low near $1,700.
Looking at capital flows, there’s a clear divergence between cryptocurrencies and AI tech stocks. Data shows that in the first week of June 2026, four major semiconductor ETFs saw nearly $3 billion in net inflows, with year-to-date inflows totaling around $21 billion. Meanwhile, since May 20, BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF has seen cumulative net outflows nearing $2 billion.
There are multiple explanations for this capital split. On one hand, the certainty narrative of AI sector growth contrasts with the macro-sensitive nature of the crypto market. Some institutional investors, adjusting their risk preferences, are reallocating funds from highly volatile digital assets to tech stocks that are more institutionally friendly. On the other hand, IPOs themselves directly absorb liquidity: If SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic each sell about 5% of their shares, based on current valuations, the three companies could collectively raise close to $150 billion.
It’s important to note, however, that capital rotation does not equate to direct causality. Crypto price corrections are also influenced by macro interest rate expectations, regulatory uncertainty, and market sentiment. The liquidity changes triggered by AI IPOs should be viewed as part of a broader shift in risk asset allocation, not as a single determining factor.
Regulatory and Narrative Risks Amid the Current IPO Boom
Every IPO surge brings concerns about market structure. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, commenting on the current market boom, said this "everything’s fine" scenario reminds him of 1972, 1986, 2000, and 2007—each followed by a bear market or crisis. Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio also believes U.S. equities are nearing levels seen before the 1929 Great Depression and the 2000 dot-com bubble burst.
In the emerging field of Pre-IPO derivatives, regulatory frameworks are also facing challenges. Currently, Pre-IPO perpetual contracts operate as part of crypto exchanges’ derivatives offerings, with pricing mechanisms relying on third-party public signals. The exposure to price volatility during the transition to standard contract pricing still needs further market validation.
Additionally, the high valuation pricing and relatively limited initial float in the 2026 IPO market—some analyses suggest free float could be as low as 3%–8%—mirror the early issuance dynamics of crypto tokens, both amplifying liquidity competition by restricting circulating supply. Whether this structure allows for adequate price discovery is a key narrative variable in the current tech IPO boom.
Industry Structural Evolution Under the AI IPO Wave
Examining the IPOs of OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX within the same timeframe reveals a broader trend: The AI sector is shifting from "frontier technology exploration" to "core infrastructure assets."
The capital market is the main vehicle for this transformation. Going public enables these AI companies to reach millions of retail and pension investors, gaining much deeper liquidity than private markets. It also allows them to use stock as currency for acquisitions and employee incentives. The resources unlocked by these financial tools ultimately translate into chip procurement, data center construction, and top talent acquisition—fundamentally shaping the competitive landscape in AI for years to come.
IPOX CEO Josef Schuster put it succinctly: "The market is currently welcoming these companies with open arms, but as their fundamentals take shape, the market will be ruthless in both rewarding and punishing them. Their future as public companies will be highly dynamic and full of change."
For the cryptocurrency sector, the AI IPO wave not only brings short-term capital diversion pressures but also provides a benchmark for self-assessment. When a new technology paradigm matures, capital markets quickly shift from "early-stage venture investment" to "public market pricing." The surge in AI IPOs is, in some sense, a self-reinforcing mechanism at the economic level.
Conclusion
OpenAI’s confidential IPO filing has pushed the already heated capital competition in the AI sector to a new stage. With Anthropic and SpaceX also targeting fall 2026 listings, their combined valuations nearing $4 trillion make this IPO wave one of the most influential events in recent capital market history.
This article has outlined four core aspects of the event: First, the driving forces behind top AI companies accelerating their IPOs—massive funding needs and first-mover competitive pressure. Second, the central challenge of valuation recalibration—demonstrating the rationale for high valuations to public markets. Third, Pre-IPO perpetual contracts as innovative derivatives, offering crypto market investors a tool to participate early in AI sector valuation. Fourth, while capital diversion effects exist, they should be evaluated as part of broader shifts in risk asset allocation.
The AI IPO wave is just beginning, and its long-term impact on crypto market capital structure and investor behavior remains to be seen.
FAQ
Q: When is OpenAI expected to complete its IPO?
OpenAI confidentially submitted its S-1 IPO application on June 8, 2026, but has not set a specific timeline. According to sources, the company is working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley and could go public as early as fall 2026.
Q: What is a Pre-IPO perpetual contract?
A Pre-IPO perpetual contract is a synthetic perpetual futures product that uses USDT as margin and settlement currency. Before the underlying company is officially listed, the contract’s mark price is set based on private funding rounds, regulatory filings, and other public signals. After listing, the contract transitions to track the real-time stock price as a standard perpetual contract. These contracts do not confer any equity or shareholder rights to investors.
Q: How will the AI IPO boom affect the crypto market?
Capital flow data shows that since spring 2026, AI tech stock ETFs have seen sustained net inflows, while Bitcoin ETFs have experienced significant outflows. This divergence is related to the growth narrative in the AI sector, but crypto price corrections are also influenced by interest rate expectations, regulatory uncertainty, and other macro factors. Capital rotation results from multiple factors and is not driven by any single event.
Q: What are the valuation levels for OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX?
As of June 2026, OpenAI’s latest private funding round valued the company at $852 billion, with its IPO valuation expected to exceed $1 trillion. Anthropic’s latest valuation is about $965 billion. SpaceX is targeting a valuation between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion. Combined, the three companies are approaching a $4 trillion valuation.
