Oxford Economics: Masih Terlalu Dini untuk Memprediksi Kenaikan Harga Minyak Akibat Ketegangan AS-Iran

Oxford Economics stated on the 8th local time that it is premature to interpret the apparent collapse of the fragile US-Iran ceasefire as a signal for oil price surges. The assessment came after Iran attacked three vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz the previous day, prompting US President Donald Trump to declare at the NATO summit in Ankara that the previous memorandum of understanding 'seems over.' OE compared the current negotiation volatility to the repeated escalation and de-escalation cycles during Trump's first-term US-China trade negotiations, noting that predicting Strait of Hormuz reopening trajectories remains inherently difficult.

Oxford Economics Compares Current Tensions to First-Term Trade Negotiations

Oxford Economics issued a report on the 8th local time stating that "given the ceasefire is likely to continue cycles of disruption and resumption, it is still premature to conclude that war-driven oil price surges represent the most likely scenario." The institution explained that "considering the deep mistrust between the US and Iran, setbacks in the negotiation process were inevitable," adding that "this bears an uncanny resemblance to the US-China trade agreement during Donald Trump's first presidential term, which saw multiple rounds of escalation and de-escalation." OE diagnosed that "taking these factors into account, it is always difficult to predict with strong confidence the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and future oil price trajectories in the baseline forecast," concluding that "upside risks to oil prices have gained momentum in the short term."

Trump Declares MOU Over at NATO Ankara Summit

Ahead of the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, Trump directed criticism at Iran, stating "the previous MOU seems over" and "they are garbage and I don't want to be involved with them anymore." The outburst came as Iran continued provocations including attacking three vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz the previous day.

WTI Futures Rise 1.37% Following US Airstrike Announcement

International oil prices rose after the US announced additional airstrikes against Iran. According to Yonhap Infomax Commodity Futures Composite (screen number 6900), August-delivery West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up 1.37% from the previous session as of 8:10 AM.

FAQ

What did Oxford Economics say about US-Iran tensions on the 8th?

Oxford Economics stated on the 8th local time that it is premature to view the apparent end of the fragile US-Iran ceasefire as a signal for oil price surges, noting that the ceasefire is likely to continue cycles of disruption and resumption.

Why did Trump declare the MOU over at the NATO summit?

Trump declared the previous memorandum of understanding 'seems over' at the NATO summit in Ankara after Iran attacked three vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz the previous day, stating he no longer wants involvement with Iran.

How did oil prices respond to the US airstrike announcement?

August-delivery WTI crude rose 1.37% from the previous session as of 8:10 AM following the US announcement of additional airstrikes against Iran, according to Yonhap Infomax data.