Bitcoin miners are experiencing stress levels that have reached a new 2026 low, with the Miner Cycle Stress Composite entering its 'undervalued' range, according to crypto analyst Wu Blockchain. JPMorgan estimates Bitcoin has traded below its average production cost of roughly $78,000 for five consecutive months, leaving approximately 20% of miners operating at a loss. The current pressure stems from declining miner revenue, which has fallen 11% over the past 10 days, combined with a Bitcoin hashrate decline of more than 25% since October 2025. Similar synchronized declines in miner stress previously appeared near major Bitcoin bottoms in 2015, 2018, and 2020, suggesting the current situation represents a historically rare market condition.
Miner Profitability Metrics Show Quarter Revenue Drop
The Miner Cycle Stress Composite blends several miner-health indicators, including profitability and revenue gauges, into a single measure of pressure on the network's block producers. The Puell Multiple, a metric that compares daily miner revenue to its yearly average, has dropped to 0.74, meaning miners are earning roughly a quarter less than their 12-month norm. Miner revenue has fallen 11% over the past 10 days, while Bitcoin's hashrate has declined more than 25% since October 2025, one of the longest sustained drawdowns on record. JPMorgan analysts estimate Bitcoin has traded below its average production cost of roughly $78,000 for five consecutive months.
Mining Difficulty Adjusted Down 10.09% to 124.93 Trillion
Bitcoin's mining difficulty was cut 10.09% to 124.93 trillion in the latest major adjustment, the second-largest downward move of 2026 after February's 11.16% drop. Hashprice, the expected daily revenue per petahash of computing power, slid to $28.68 earlier this year even as difficulty jumped 7.15%, representing an 18% hashprice crash. Asset manager Coinshares described mining margins as tightening across the industry, estimating that 15-20% of miners are unprofitable and noting that many operators are accelerating a pivot toward artificial intelligence and high-performance computing workloads.
SBI Crypto Closes Bitcoin Mining Pool After Five Years
Japan's SBI Crypto said last week it will close its bitcoin mining pool after five years, sending 20,412 PH/s, just over 2% of the global hashrate, hunting for a new home before the pool stops accepting shares on July 30. U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded their worst month since launch in June, bleeding $4.5 billion as Bitcoin slipped below $60,000 during the month's weakest stretch. Bitcoin is down nearly 50% from its October 2025 high near $126,200.
Vaneck Research Shows Median 90-Day Returns in High-40% Range After Hashrate Contractions
Vaneck's research on previous hashrate contractions found that, excluding the network's early history, Bitcoin delivered a median forward return in the high-40% range over the 90 days that followed such episodes. The firm's analysts sketched three 90-day scenarios: a constructive path of 10% to 35% upside, a "capitulation-lite" range of -5% to +20%, and a bearish case of losses up to 30%. Cryptoquant's Miner Capitulation Index has climbed above 65, a level analyst Axel Adler Jr. described as evidence of building stress, though he emphasized it remains below the extremes of the 2022 bear market, when miner capitulation moved hand in hand with a 65% drawdown in Bitcoin's price.
FAQ
What is the current Bitcoin miner stress level in 2026?
The Miner Cycle Stress Composite has fallen to a new 2026 low and entered its 'undervalued' range, with the Puell Multiple dropping to 0.74. JPMorgan estimates Bitcoin has traded below its average production cost of roughly $78,000 for five consecutive months, leaving approximately 20% of miners operating at a loss.
How much has Bitcoin's hashrate declined since October 2025?
Bitcoin's hashrate has declined more than 25% since October 2025, one of the longest sustained drawdowns on record. The network's mining difficulty was cut 10.09% to 124.93 trillion in the latest major adjustment, the second-largest downward move of 2026 after February's 11.16% drop.
What did Vaneck's research show about Bitcoin returns after hashrate contractions?
Vaneck's research on previous hashrate contractions found that, excluding the network's early history, Bitcoin delivered a median forward return in the high-40% range over the 90 days that followed such episodes. The firm sketched three 90-day scenarios: a constructive path of 10% to 35% upside, a "capitulation-lite" range of -5% to +20%, and a bearish case of losses up to 30%.
