BTC sharply drops 0.44% in the short term: geopolitical tensions escalate as a stronger US dollar coincides with increased pressure

From 01:45 to 02:00 (UTC) on July 13, 2026, BTC fell 0.44% within 15 minutes. The price dropped from $63,698.6 USDT to $63,397.9 USDT, with a 0.47% amplitude. Overall market volatility increased but remained limited: the 24-hour move was only +0.24%. Price action stayed within a narrow $63,572–$64,433 range, suggesting both bulls and bears are waiting amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

The main driver behind this abnormal move is a sharp escalation in Middle East geopolitical conflict. After the U.S. launched military strikes against Iran, Iran retaliated, leading to the Strait of Hormuz being substantially shut. Daily oil-transit vessels fell from over 130 ships to 22, and Brent crude jumped more than 3% to $78.68 per barrel. The surge in oil prices has lifted inflation expectations. Meanwhile, deep disagreements within the Federal Reserve over the rate-hike path have emerged: the market’s pricing for two rate hikes before year-end rose to 52.1%, and the U.S. dollar index strengthened significantly. In the transmission chain of “oil prices rising → inflation stickiness → rate-hike expectations heating up → dollar strengthening,” BTC, as a risk asset, is under pressure.

At the same time, macro bearish factors and negative industry signals are reinforcing each other. New Hampshire rejected a $100 million Bitcoin support bond proposal, weakening the institutional adoption narrative. American Bitcoin Corp’s stock price has plunged by about 97% over the past year, reflecting deep difficulties in the mining sector. Order book data shows sell-side pressure is significant: at $63,998.3, an order for 0.4035 BTC accounts for 88.1% of total sell orders across the top five levels, forming near-term overhead resistance. In technical terms, the 15-minute ADX reached 41.96, indicating a strong short-term trend, but moving averages remain bearish; downside momentum has not yet fully been released.

At present, volatility risk is concentrated on the evolution of macro events and key price levels. If the Strait of Hormuz resumes passage or the U.S. and Iran reach a ceasefire agreement, an oil-price pullback could ease pressure on BTC. If BTC breaks below $63,500, it may trigger technical stop-losses. Keep monitoring Brent crude price, the U.S. dollar index trend, changes in Fed rate-hike probabilities, and BTC’s large on-chain capital flows.