BTC up 0.44% in 15 min: Macro risks remain ahead of the rate decision; the short-term rebound is driven by short covering

From 15:15 to 15:30 (UTC) on July 28, 2026, BTC rose 0.44% within 15 minutes; the price range was 63,373.1–63,973.9 USDT, with an Ampl of 0.95%. A short-term technical rebound appeared, but overall the market still remains in a wait-and-see stance ahead of the Fed’s interest-rate decision, and risk appetite has not fully recovered.

The main driver behind this intraday move is short-term short covering and demand for a technical rebound. Recently, BTC fell from the 24-hour high of $65,088 to around $63,363, down 1.92%. Buy orders stepped in and provided support above the key support level of $62,745. On the 15-minute timeframe, ADX is only 12.92, showing clear signs of trend exhaustion; some shorts chose to close positions, pushing the price to rebound in the short term.

The second factor and the resulting resonance include: first, this week’s Fed meeting has a 31.5% chance of a rate hike; the stronger USD regime remains unchanged, and sell pressure above BTC continues to build. Second, although the Israel-Iran conflict has shown a brief pause, the risk to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is still present; geopolitical uncertainty suppresses market risk appetite. Third, gold holding steady above $4,000 attracts safe-haven capital; the market has not regarded BTC as a safe-haven tool, so capital rotation has not effectively flowed into crypto. Fourth, selling sentiment in AI-related stocks and Bitcoin mining stocks has spread, creating indirect drag on the market.

Volatility risks still remain. Going forward, key points to watch include: if the Fed’s interest-rate decision (July 30) unexpectedly hikes rates, it could test support below $62,000; if the $62,745 support level fails, the next focus range is $61,000–$62,000; and how progress in the Israel-Iran conflict and energy price fluctuations affect inflation expectations. In terms of execution, be cautious about the risk of intensified short-term volatility; it is recommended to monitor how key support and resistance levels perform and how macro events unfold.