BTC up slightly 0.33% in 15 minutes: Iran-US ceasefire eases inflation, countering pressure from expectations of the Fed’s rate hikes

From 23:30 to 23:45 UTC on July 28, 2026, BTC traded within the range of 63,632.8 to 63,845.9 USDT. The 15-minute return was +0.33%, and the Ampl was 0.33%. The current price is $63,654.6, with only a -0.02% change over the past 24 hours. The market is in an extremely narrow-range consolidation; the intraday range is about 2.1%, trading volume is low, and participants are heavily in a wait-and-see mood.

The main drivers behind this modest BTC uptick are temporary peacemaking developments amid the US-Iran conflict. Negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have made a breakthrough. The strait typically transports about 15 million barrels of oil per day; the ceasefire news directly caused a 6.3% day-on-day plunge in Brent crude, easing oil supply risk and inflation expectations—an outcome that is theoretically bullish for risk assets, including BTC.

However, the dominant factor is not a one-way long. The probability of a September rate hike by the Fed is as high as 81%, and interest-rate policy uncertainty limits BTC’s upside. Meanwhile, gold has held above $4,000, with safe-haven capital rotating into precious metals rather than crypto. In addition, the narrative that BTC miners are transitioning to AI data centers (TeraWulf, Hut 8, and their collaboration with Anthropic) provides support for long-term value, but short-term price drivers remain limited. Order Book data shows the buy-sell depth ratio is 0.45, with asks dominating. There is a large sell wall around $63,654.7, suggesting heavier near-term sell pressure.

On the technical side, the daily MA is mildly bullish, but an ADX of only 13.4 indicates no clear trend. At the 4-hour level, a MA turning bearish conflicts with the daily chart. RSI across all timeframes remains neutral, so the short-term direction is still unclear. Key things to watch include subsequent developments after the US-Iran negotiations, the Fed’s interest-rate decision, and crude oil price action. For support, watch $62,745; for resistance, watch $64,100. Short-term volatility risk remains, so it’s recommended to monitor real-time market changes.