Circle Internet Stock Draws Conflicting Analyst Ratings After Rival Stablecoin Launch

Circle Internet Group (NYSE: CRCL), issuer of USDC stablecoin, received conflicting analyst ratings on June 30 and July 1 following the launch of rival stablecoin Open USD (OUSD). Compass Point upgraded CRCL to Neutral from Sell while cutting its price target to $55 from $97 on June 30, citing concerns about OUSD's impact on Circle's payment ambitions. Clear Street maintained its Buy rating and $157 price target on July 1, calling the market selloff overdone. USDC remains the second-largest stablecoin by market cap at more than $73 billion, behind Tether's USDT at $184 billion.

Compass Point Downgrades Price Target to $55

Compass Point upgraded Circle Internet Group to Neutral from Sell on June 30, while cutting its price target to $55 from $97. The move followed the announcement of Open USD (OUSD), a stablecoin backed by more than 140 partners. OUSD's network includes Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN), despite its existing relationship with Circle.

Compass Point called the announcement bearish for Circle's long-term payments ambitions. The firm noted that with CRCL trading at 32 times its 2026 estimated EBITDA, little room remains to justify the stock's payment-opportunity premium. Compass Point does not expect OUSD to gain traction in defi infrastructure or crypto trading, which are USDC's core use cases. The firm expects Circle and Coinbase to renew their USDC partnership on Aug. 18, 2026.

Clear Street Maintains Buy Rating at $157

Clear Street took the opposite view. Analysts led by Owen Lau reiterated a $157 price target and Buy rating on July 1. While OUSD's debut triggered a Circle selloff, analysts at Clear Street called the market reaction "excessive." They said that while OUSD has strong partners similar to other leading stablecoins, without any solid evidence that OUSD can get real traction, the Circle selloff looks overdone.

Clear Street compared OUSD's prospects to Paxos' USDG, a similarly consortium-backed stablecoin that has failed to gain a meaningful share. "While the narrative will linger, CRCL has maintained strong market shares even though new stablecoins continuously arise," the analysts wrote. CRCL closed at $68.64 on July 6, up 6.22% on the day.

FAQ

What ratings did Circle Internet Group receive on June 30 and July 1?

Compass Point upgraded Circle Internet Group to Neutral from Sell on June 30, cutting its price target to $55 from $97. Clear Street maintained its Buy rating and $157 price target on July 1.

Why did Compass Point downgrade Circle's price target?

Compass Point cited concerns about Open USD (OUSD), a rival stablecoin backed by more than 140 partners including Coinbase, and its potential impact on Circle's long-term payments ambitions.

What is Circle's USDC market position compared to Tether's USDT?

USDC remains the second-largest stablecoin by market cap at more than $73 billion, behind Tether's USDT at $184 billion.