CLARITY Act Passage Probability Drops to Historic Low, 82% Peak Expectation Fades

According to Odaily, betting on the CLARITY Act's formal enactment in 2026 has turned bearish, with passage probability falling to historic lows as of mid-July. The bill's probability peaked at 82% at the start of the year but has steadily declined amid multiple negotiation impasses.

Key obstacles include stalled ethical clause discussions, banking lobbies opposing stablecoin interest-bearing provisions, and compressed legislative timelines as the midterm elections approach. Market traders now assess that the bill is unlikely to complete its full legislative process and take effect in 2026.