Fed Has 74.3% Probability of Holding Rates in July, 42.9% for September Hold

According to CME FedWatch data released on July 7, the Federal Reserve has a 74.3% probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged at its July meeting, with a 25.7% chance of a 25-basis-point increase.

For September, market expectations shift toward policy adjustments, with a 42.9% probability of holding rates steady, a 46.2% probability of a 25-basis-point hike, and a 10.8% probability of a 50-basis-point increase.