Gold Holds $4,000 Support Before Fed Decision on July 28-29

Key Takeaways
  • Gold traded near $4,050 per ounce on Tuesday, July 28, holding above $4,000 support.
  • The U.S. Dollar Index traded near 101.50 while 10-year real Treasury yield reached 2.43%.
  • Federal Reserve concludes its policy meeting Wednesday at 2 p.m. EDT with 62% probability of unchanged rates.

Gold traded near $4,050 per ounce Tuesday, July 28, as a stronger U.S. dollar and elevated real yields kept pressure on bullion before the Federal Reserve's policy decision. The precious metal held above the psychological $4,000 support level despite technical weakness, with the four-hour chart showing the price below its 50-period exponential moving average at approximately $4,065.78. The Federal Reserve will conclude its July 28-29 meeting Wednesday, with markets assigning roughly a 62% probability to unchanged rates and about a 38% probability to a quarter-point increase, according to Reuters.

Gold Holds $4,000 Support on Four-Hour Chart

The four-hour XAU/USD chart showed gold near $4,049.58, below its 50-period exponential moving average at approximately $4,065.78. This moving average now acts as the first resistance level. The relative strength index stood near 44.8, below both the neutral 50 mark and its signal line, though the indicator remains above oversold territory.

The first major support sits at $4,000, where buyers have repeatedly entered near that psychological level. The next downside area appears around $3,950. On the upside, gold must first reclaim the $4,066 area to challenge the recent resistance zone between $4,140 and $4,160.

U.S. Dollar Index Trades Above 101.50 as Real Yields Reach 2.43%

The U.S. Dollar Index traded near 101.50, above its 50-period moving average at 101.19. Its RSI reading near 61.5 showed positive momentum without signaling extremely overbought conditions. The 10-year real Treasury yield reached 2.43% on July 24. Higher real yields raise the return available from inflation-protected government debt, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold, which pays no interest.

Central banks added a net 41 metric tons of gold in May, while China's June net imports through Hong Kong more than doubled from a year earlier to 50.679 tons.

Federal Reserve Policy Decision Scheduled for Wednesday 2 p.m. EDT

The Fed will conclude its July 28-29 meeting Wednesday, with its policy statement scheduled for 2 p.m. EDT. Reuters reported that markets assigned roughly a 62% probability to unchanged rates and about a 38% probability to a quarter-point increase.

FAQ

What price level did gold trade near on Tuesday, July 28?
Gold traded near $4,050 per ounce Tuesday, July 28, holding above the $4,000 support level despite pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar and elevated real yields.

When is the Federal Reserve's policy decision scheduled?
The Federal Reserve will conclude its July 28-29 meeting Wednesday, with its policy statement scheduled for 2 p.m. EDT. Markets assigned roughly a 62% probability to unchanged rates and about a 38% probability to a quarter-point increase, according to Reuters.

How much gold did China import in June through Hong Kong?
China's June net imports through Hong Kong more than doubled from a year earlier to 50.679 tons, while central banks added a net 41 metric tons of gold in May.

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