MiniMax experienced a major unlock on July 9, with approximately 44.85% of shares (nearly 146 million shares) becoming tradable, increasing the free float from less than 6% to about 50%, a nearly tenfold surge in supply. In early July, MiniMax's stock price retreated to around HKD 330–350, down over 70% from its peak.
Alibaba, Mihayou, and the founding team reaffirm continued holdings; Hillhouse and Sequoia are more inclined to sell
According to reports, the shareholder structure and positions are as follows:
Alibaba (approximately 13% stake, largest external shareholder and cornerstone): Lock-up period of 12–24 months, no reduction in holdings this time, publicly committed to supporting development.
Mihayou (5.24%): Lock-up period of 12–24 months, no reduction this time, publicly committed to holding.
Founding team: Lock-up period of 12–24 months, no reduction this time.
Hillhouse, Sequoia, Source Capital, and other financial investors: Entered early, with unrealized gains still reaching multiple times or over ten times from the peak; driven by DPI (dividend payout ratio) and fund maturity pressures, they are more inclined to reduce holdings.
According to Delin Holdings Research Institute, the average three-month decline for Hong Kong tech stocks after unlock is about 4%, and about 7% after six months; stocks with large initial gains tend to fall even more.
JPMorgan: Downgrades rating to Neutral after M3 release, target price cut to HKD 400
Reports indicate that after the M3 model was released, JPMorgan downgraded MiniMax from "Overweight" to "Neutral," and cut the target price from HKD 1,100 to HKD 400, citing that the company "has yet to launch a new domestic SOTA model, and its pure model capabilities are still catching up."
After the M3 release, third-party evaluation Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index ranked it ninth among mainstream models, with Chatbot Arena dropping outside the top forty; one week after M3's launch, MiniMax announced a permanent 50% API price reduction. Meanwhile, competitors like Zhipu AI repeatedly raised API prices, with cumulative increases over 80%, and call volume quadrupled.
MiniMax revenue about $79 million, up 159% year-over-year; adjusted net loss around $250 million
According to MiniMax's financial report, key 2025 financial data include: revenue approximately $79 million, up 159%; adjusted net loss around $250 million; R&D expenditure about $253 million, over 70% of revenue; overall gross margin on C-end products only 4.7%; B-end open platform revenue increased nearly 198% annually, with about 70% gross margin, but still small in scale; B-end paying customers increased from about 100 to 2,500, but ARPPU dropped from approximately $12,000 to $6,000, with a customer base shifting toward small and medium developers.
Zhipu AI's unlock ratio only 5.76%, "Long Zhipu, Short MiniMax" becomes a popular trade
Reports show that Zhipu AI's unlock ratio on July 8 was only about 5.76% (mostly cornerstone shareholders), which can sustain scarcity for another half-year; in contrast, MiniMax's unlock ratio reached 44.85%. Recently, "long Zhipu, short MiniMax" has become a hot paired trade.
The stock price divergence between the two companies is interpreted by the market as a re-pricing of AI pathways: Zhipu benefits from valuation premiums due to its focus on foundational models, domestic computing power, and developer platforms, while MiniMax's advantages lie in multimodal capabilities and overseas expansion on the C-end, but it needs to prove it can convert into an agent ecosystem and stable revenue.
MiniMax signed an IPO counseling agreement with CITIC Securities for the STAR Market at the end of May 2026, initiating a "A+H" dual-capital platform plan.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many shares are involved in this unlock, and which shareholders are mainly pressured to sell?
According to reports, about 44.85% of shares (nearly 146 million shares) are unlocked, increasing the free float from less than 6% to about 50%. Alibaba (around 13%), Mihayou (5.24%), and the founding team have all committed to holding; the main pressure to sell comes from early financial investors like Hillhouse, Sequoia, and Source Capital, whose unrealized gains still reach multiple times or over ten times.
Why did MiniMax's stock drop over 70% from its peak?
The two main reasons are: the fading of the model capability premium (M3 third-party rankings are lower, API prices permanently cut by 50%, JPMorgan downgraded the rating) and the decline in the globalized story premium for the C-end (Talkie and Xingye monthly active users dropped to about 60%, and Heluo AI's video model ranking was surpassed).
What are the differences between Zhipu AI and MiniMax's unlock situations?
Reports indicate that Zhipu AI's unlock ratio on July 8 was only about 5.76% (mainly cornerstone shareholders), while MiniMax's was 44.85%. The difference in unlock ratios has made "long Zhipu, short MiniMax" a popular recent market paired trade.
