SpaceX (SPCX) stock closed at $115.07 on July 25, down 15% from the IPO issue price. Morgan Stanley analysts said the first batch of shares’ lockup period will expire on August 6, and potential selling pressure could push the stock price to further test the $100 level. Investors are pricing the value of SpaceX’s AI business (xAI) as zero or even negative.
Morgan Stanley Warns: SpaceX Stock Faces Pressure After the Aug. 6 Lockup Release
According to Morgan Stanley’s analysis, the near-term trend of SpaceX stock is tied to three key factors:
IPO size: $86 billion, completed in mid-June
July 25 close: $115.07 (down 15% from the IPO issue price)
Lockup release date: August 6, first batch of shares becomes tradable; Morgan Stanley warns it could create selling pressure
Morgan Stanley warning: If the stock price falls to $100, the market has already valued the xAI business at zero or negative values. The main reason is heavy AI capital expenditures and a highly uncertain business return model
Big Morgan target price: $300 (reiterated), saying the stock’s correction has opened up a long-term buying opportunity
Tesla’s Stock Fell 18% Last Week; Q2 Free Cash Flow Turns Negative
Based on market data and reporting in the original article, Tesla (TSLA) shares dropped 18% this week, the largest single-week decline since 2022. The main reasons are that its Q2 earnings failed to meet market expectations and that massive investments in plans such as Robotaxi, humanoid robots, and a mega chip foundry have turned recent Free Cash Flow into negative territory.
Research firm Argus Research noted that such heavy asset investment is difficult to translate into real returns in the short term, delaying the timeline for profit growth and affecting the market’s confidence in its operating outlook.
Institutional Assessment of SpaceX’s Long-Term Trend
Based on Bloomberg’s compilation of analyst ratings, nearly 80% of analysts maintain ratings equivalent to “buy” for SpaceX stock, with an average target price of about $232. Morgan Stanley analysts reiterated their $300 target price and believe the recent stock correction has created a long-term entry opportunity.
Geopolitical factors such as a surge in oil prices and a wait-and-see sentiment among the market toward AI high-capex tech stocks are seen as the macro backdrop that has weighed on SpaceX’s share price recently.
FAQ
What are Morgan Stanley’s warnings and target price for SpaceX stock?
According to Morgan Stanley’s report, if SpaceX stock falls to $100, the market has already valued the xAI business at zero or negative values. At the same time, Big Morgan analysts reiterated a $300 long-term target price, saying the stock’s correction has revealed an entry opportunity; the first batch lockup release on August 6 could create selling pressure.
Why did Tesla’s stock fall this week, and what was the biggest one-week decline in how long?
Based on reporting in the original article, Tesla (TSLA) shares fell 18% this week, the largest single-week decline since 2022. The main reason is that Q2 earnings missed expectations and massive investments in plans such as Robotaxi caused Free Cash Flow to turn negative.
How is the overall rating of SpaceX stock by Bloomberg analysts?
Based on Bloomberg’s aggregated data, nearly 80% of analysts maintain ratings equivalent to “buy,” with an average target price of about $232.
