Morgan Stanley Slashes CPO Growth Forecast 30x to 23k Units in 2026

According to Morgan Stanley's latest CPO report, the market's expectations for CPO shipments in 2026 are drastically overstated, with the investment bank forecasting only 23,000 units against prevailing market expectations of over 200,000 units. The core constraint is TSMC's PIC capacity ramp-up (10 to 25 kwpm) and yield bottlenecks at 20-50 percent.

The projection gap will directly impact major chipmakers including Nvidia, Broadcom, and TSMC. Morgan Stanley also downgraded TSMC's CoWoS capacity forecast for 2027 from 45 kwpm to 40 kwpm, putting AllRing's expected 53 percent growth at significant risk.