On July 8, President Donald Trump declared the ceasefire with Iran had ended, and the U.S. Treasury Department withdrew its previous approval for Iranian oil sales, advancing the deadline from August 21 to July 17. The move followed a memorandum of understanding signed on June 17 that aimed to end all fighting, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and dilute Iran's highly enriched uranium under international oversight.
The agreement's collapse signals market instability. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose to 4.58%, while Brent crude approached $80 per barrel after climbing 9% this week. The underlying pressure stems from the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global daily oil consumption flows. Oil shipments through the strait fell 30% in the first quarter of 2026 to 14.6 million barrels per day, with limited alternative routes available.