WTI Oil Drops Below $70 After US-Iran Ceasefire in Mid-June, Fed Rate Hike Odds Fall to 75%

According to Yonhapinfomax, WTI crude oil futures fell below $70 per barrel following the US-Iran ceasefire memorandum signed in mid-June, down from nearly $120 in late February. Brent oil similarly dropped to $70, approaching pre-war levels.

Market expectations for Fed rate increases have shifted sharply. Federal funds futures show the probability of at least one rate hike by year-end retreated from 86% in mid-June to roughly 75%, while the odds of a rate hold rose to about 24%. Multiple central banks including the ECB, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and Reserve Bank of Australia are signaling reduced rate hike expectations amid moderating inflation pressures. Key economic data releases—including US June CPI and PPI on July 14-15—will be critical in confirming the shift in monetary policy trajectories.